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The Bricks & Mortar Report
Mar 09: No let-up in the selling pressure
Asia Real Estate
Christopher GeeAC
(65) 6882-2345
christopher.ka.gee@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private
Limited
See page 63 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
FTSE EPRA NAREIT Asia Price Index
0
1000
2000
3000
Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08
Source: Bloomberg
Listed real estate market size in Asia
Pacific
US$ in billions
111
159
164
40
8
18
0 50 100 150 200
Australia
Japan
HK/China
Singapore
India
Others
Source: EPRA
J.P. Morgan’s Asia-Pacific real estate
equities research team list is on page 61.
• Absorbing the supply of stock: The short-term supply of Asian real
estate risk outweighs demand at multiple levels. General equity risk
appetite, especially for emerging markets, appears to us to be on the
wane, while the re-capitalization of the global real estate and the broader
financials sectors represents a substantial overhang for now, in our view.
Notwithstanding decent take-up rates in new homes sales YTD in China,
Hong Kong, and Singapore, there remains a sizeable amount of
inventory to clear in a number of physical property segments in Asia.
• Reducing our weighting in China: J.P. Morgan’s China property stock
index has gained 37% since its Nov 08 low and has outperformed the
FTSE EPRA NAREIT Asia index by 54%. There has been significant
differentiation in price performance YTD, with the large-cap SOEs
outperforming within the China sector, which we believe will continue.
Homebuyers are likely to favor developers most capable of delivering
quality product, and investors are likely to prefer to provide finance to
the most diversified, national developers with established track records.
• Hong Kong’s still a place for shelter: Relative balance sheet strength
for both households and the corporate sector sets Hong Kong apart as the
regional safe haven, in our view, and we have re-deployed funds from
China and the smaller markets to Hong Kong and into the large-cap
stocks in Singapore that have either re-capitalized (A-REIT) or have
strong balance sheets (City Developments). We are underweight in Japan
and Australia in our Asia Pacific real estate model portfolio.
• Top tier, quality bias: We have an orientation towards the highestquality,
largest-cap stocks in each market in the region. In the current
markets, relative value is more qualitative than quantitative, especially
when capital structures are in flux and earnings visibility is limited. Our
model portfolio construction is therefore based mainly on the larger,
most liquid names in each market, and includes the likes of SHKP, Hong
Kong Land, A-REIT, and City Developments. In China, we retain a
preference for the state-owned enterprises China Resources Land and, to
a lesser extent, China Overseas Land & Investment.
Table of Contents
Investment summary: Absorbing the supply.........................3
Valuation screens...................................................................12
Recent research .....................................................................13
Australia market summary ....................................................52
China market summary..........................................................53
Hong Kong market summary ................................................55
Japan market summary .........................................................57
Singapore market summary ..................................................58
Other Asian emerging real estate markets...........................60
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