发帖
雷达卡
North America
Financial REITs
2 March 2009
Retail Market Analysis
Absorption down -2.6msf,
vacancy up 50bps to 7.3%
Lou Taylor
Research Analyst
(1) 203 863 2381
louis.taylor@db.com
Vin Chao
Research Associate
(1) 212 250 6799
vincent.chao@db.com
Conor Fennerty
Research Associate
(1) 212 250 1576
conor.fennerty@db.com
Store closures and liquidations push vacancy up 50bps
Negative absorption accelerated in 4Q with a contraction in occupied space of -
2.6msf. This was primarily driven by the high number of retailer liquidations and
store closures during the quarter. This pushed vacancy higher, up 50bps
sequentially to 7.3% and pulled rents lower, down -0.9% sequentially. We expect
the recession to extend into 2010 which will result in further erosion in retail
fundamentals.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Update
Global Markets Research Company
Negative absorption accelerates in 4Q08;
Suburban Virginia (318ksf) had the best absorption followed by Tampa (138ksf)
and Orlando (100ksf). Atlanta had highest negative absorption (-518ksf), followed
by Chicago (-440ksf) and Baltimore (-347ksf). On a trailing 12-month basis, Raleigh
had the highest absorption of the top 24 metros, at 393ksf, followed by Austin at
303ksf.
Vacancy moves higher ending 4Q at 7.3%
The vacancy rate increased 50bps sequentially to 7.3% in the top 24 metros we
track. Year-over-year, it was up 140bps. The vacancy rate in the larger REIS sample
( 76 metros ) was 8.9% at year end. This is the highest level since 1994. The 30
year high is 11.1% in 1990. During the quarter, San Jose performed best with a 40
bp drop in the vacancy rate to 3.4%. Year-over-year it was up 70bps. The other
California metros still have comparatively low vacancy rates, despite increases this
quarter. San Francisco stayed at 4.1% in Q4. Los Angeles was 4.3%, up 40bps
sequentially. Orange County was 4.6% up 70bps in Q4.
Year-over-year rents decline -0.6%
Year-over-year rents fell 70 bps in 4Q versus +1.0% last quarter. In 2008 rent
spreads decelerated each quarter from 1Q08 high of 2.5% to this quarter's rent
roll down. Sequentially, rents were down -0.9% which compares to -0.2% last
quarter.
Construction to inventory highest in Austin and Dallas
At the end of 4Q08, there were 68.2msf of projects under construction. This
represented 6.7% of inventory versus 73.7msf (7.2% of inventory) last quarter.
There were 14.7msf of deliveries this quarter and 9.1msf of starts. Roughly 53%
of these developments are expected to come online in 1H09.
Valuation and risks
Subsequent to the holiday season many stores continued to liquidate or close
locations while others filed for bankruptcy. We think this trend will continue
throughout 2009 as the economy weakens. As we noted above, we’ve our 2009
and 2010 earnings estimates reflect a 300bps decline in occupancy and declining
rents.
Table of Contents
Liquidations and store closures accelerated in 4Q......................... 3
Vacancy rate moves higher; rents decelerate further .................... 5
San Jose was the only metro with a decline in vacancy...........................................................5
Rent growth deteriorated during the quarter ............................................................................9
Construction as a percent of inventory declines in 4Q ................ 12
Appendix: Top 24 metros................................................................ 19
304865.pdf
(793.76 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
