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Japan
Technology Electronics/Consumer
2 March 2009
Jan Taiwan tech sales (1)
Recent trends at foundries and TFT
LCD companies
Yasuo Nakane, CMA
Research Analyst
(+81) 3 5156-6709
yasuo.nakane@db.com
Deutsche Securities Inc.
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factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Update
Global Markets Research Company
Signs of device production rebounding commensurate with demand
Foundries
Front-end service providers: Consolidated Jan sales varied for the two leaders,
falling 9% MoM at TSMC and 32% at UMC. Still negative.
Back-end service providers: Consolidated sales fell 13% QoQ at ASE and 12% at
SPIL Negative.
IDMs and fabless IC design companies
Sales rose 11% MoM at Macronix International, a major supplier of MaskRom for
the Nintendo DS platform. MaskRom sales were up 13% MoM. Neutral.
Consolidated sales rose 22% MoM at MediaTek, Taiwan's largest maker of
chipsets for optical disk drives.
January large TFT LCD panel shipments
Aggregate shipments declined 12% MoM to 7.61m units. They were below 10m
units for the third straight month. Structurally, supply remained excessive, but we
see signs that panel demand-supply and prices for 37-inch and smaller models are
improving as panel makers work diligently to limit production and panel prices hit a
bottom below cash cost. Shipments of 40-inch panels continued falling steeply.
January panel prices and supply and demand trends
Monitor panels: Prices continued decreasing. But prices rose for 19-inch
widescreen and some other models.
Notebook panels: Prices kept falling. Demand-supply softened, but some prices
rose in tandem with trends for monitors.
TV panels: Prices continued decreasing. Conditions varied considerably between
32-inch and smaller and 40-inch and larger panels.
Large TFT panel price and demand-supply outlook for February
Notebook panels: We expect flat or slightly increasing prices. Extremely lowpriced
models should see price adjustments.
Monitor panels: We anticipate flat or slightly higher prices. Extremely low-priced
models should see price adjustments.
TV panels: We think prices of 32-inch and smaller panels will hold steady while
prices of 37-inch and larger panels decline. Companies should keep supply in
check.
Notes: 1) Translation of Japanese-language report, issued 24 February.
2) Opinions in this report about listed Taiwanese companies are those of our analysts
covering the companies. Opinions about the industry in general and implication
Supply-demand improving on full-fledged efforts to limit supplies; continuing this
trend will require that panel makers keep output in line with demand
In our view, momentum is growing for price hikes because 1) inventories have been reduced
following seven straight months of major production cutbacks; 2) prices of 32-inch and
smaller panels are largely below cash cost in all areas; and 3) panel makers, now focusing
more squarely on maintaining cash margins, have told set makers that they do not want to
supply panels below cash cost. We believe demand-supply will continue tightening through
early April as supplies are limited and that this will afford opportunities for raising panel prices
until then. Still, 1) final demand will likely flag once more as price increases for panels lead to
rising prices for final products (which, at the very least, would not be a positive development),
and 2) a key question is whether panel makers can curtail in supply to keep it in line with
demand from now through 2Q (our demand-supply model suggests that the surplus ratio:
supply capacity divided by demand forecast, is 44% in 1Q and will be 29% in 2Q; if capacity
utilization by panel makers is confined to 56% and 71% in these two quarters, supply will not
be excessive). Indeed, whereas the surplus ratio has been 44% in 1Q (that is, the demandsupply
balance is 56%), panel makers have kept operating rates below 50%, and this has
been a major contributor to improving demand-supply.
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