<p>Global TFT-LCD market<br/>Utilization rate would be a key swing factor; we see<br/>trading opportunities<br/>Semiconductors<br/>JJ ParkAC<br/>(822) 758-5717<br/><a href="mailto:jj.park@jpmorgan.com">jj.park@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited<br/>Liang-Chun Lin<br/>(886-2) 2725 9863<br/><a href="mailto:liang.c.lin@jpmorgan.com">liang.c.lin@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited.<br/>Yoshiharu Izumi<br/>(81-3) 6736-8637<br/><a href="mailto:yoshiharu.izumi@jpmorgan.com">yoshiharu.izumi@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.<br/>Marcus Shin<br/>(822) 758-5712<br/><a href="mailto:marcus.j.shin@jpmorgan.com">marcus.j.shin@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited<br/>Masashi Hayami<br/>(81-3) 6736-8606<br/><a href="mailto:masashi.x.hayami@jpmorgan.com">masashi.x.hayami@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.<br/>Winnie Hong<br/>(886-2) 2725-9899<br/><a href="mailto:winnie.wy.hong@jpmorgan.com">winnie.wy.hong@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited.<br/>See page 52 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.<br/>J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may<br/>have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their<br/>investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies<br/>covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at<br/><a href="http://www.morganmarkets.com">www.morganmarkets.com</a> or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.<br/>Large size panel rev. and growth rate<br/>US$ in million, %<br/>-4<br/>34<br/>53 54<br/>67<br/>30<br/>-12<br/>-47 -53 -48<br/>-30<br/>8 14 13 10 3<br/>0<br/>5,000<br/>10,000<br/>15,000<br/>20,000<br/>25,000<br/>1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09E 3Q09E 1Q10E 3Q10E<br/>-60<br/>-40<br/>-20<br/>0<br/>20<br/>40<br/>60<br/>80<br/>Revenue Q/Q growth, % Y/Y growth, %<br/>Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.<br/>• Utilization rate would be a key swing factor: Although oversupply<br/>should persist until 2010 based on installed capacity, given a reduced<br/>utilization rate, panel supply could be tight in 2009. If supply discipline<br/>is maintained, the industry could be more balanced. In case of any<br/>increase in the utilization rate, especially in Taiwan, the market could<br/>see a significant rise in oversupply given potential downside risk to enddemand<br/>and already installed capacity.<br/>• Revenue decline in 2009 likely to be at a historical high, followed by<br/>a moderate recovery in 2010E: We estimate the global LCD market<br/>will contract by 35% Y/Y, higher than that in 2001 (a 25% drop),<br/>followed by a 10% Y/Y increase in 2010E. The industry is facing ASP<br/>contraction and limited volume growth, which is different from the<br/>previous downturn (largely driven by ASP pressure).<br/>• Divergence in panel price movements: Based on our panel price vs.<br/>cash cost analysis, we expect divergence in price movements. We expect<br/>monitor and small-medium size TV prices to move up, while NBPC and<br/>large-size TV panel prices should be under pressure, as tight supply is<br/>largely driven by a reduced utilization rate for uneconomical products.<br/>Also, there is potential downside risk to panel prices in 2Q09 given that<br/>recent rush orders are largely driven by inventory replenishment.<br/>• Area growth rate to be lower than that of unit growth: Due to<br/>tightening consumer spending, price elasticity in the flat panel market<br/>appears to be fading away. As a result, the gap between area growth and<br/>unit growth should significantly reduce in 2009. We forecast blended<br/>ASP to decline sequentially until 4Q10, while the Y/Y price decline<br/>should slow down in 4Q09.<br/>• Stock recommendations; trading on UT rate and panel prices: Due to<br/>production flexibility in LCD, we believe panel makers deserve a<br/>premium over DRAMs. Hence, we raise our PTs for AUO and CMO as<br/>we expect a reduction in operating loss, and we provide a trading range<br/>for all major panel makers (Table 16). Also, we believe that Korean<br/>panel makers deserve a premium over global peers due to their customer<br/>base. Besides utilization rate, we believe panel makers’ share prices will<br/>move along with ASP changes rather than revenue going forward.</p><p>Table of Contents<br/>Section 1: Investment summary..............................................3<br/>Section 2: J.P. Morgan’s global TFT-LCD model...................5<br/>What is new in this report? ..........................................................................................6<br/>Changes in our panel price assumptions ......................................................................8<br/>Supply side assumptions ............................................................................................10<br/>Demand side assumptions..........................................................................................13<br/>Panel price assumptions.............................................................................................17<br/>ASP vs. cash cost analysis .........................................................................................19<br/>Section 3: LCD vs. DRAM industry .......................................22<br/>Section 4: TV market update .................................................23<br/>Sell-in vs. sell-through ...............................................................................................23<br/>Global TV set makers’ target shipments in 2009.......................................................24<br/>China’s stimulus program..........................................................................................24<br/>Section 5: Stock recommendations......................................25<br/>AUO (2409.TW; Underweight; PT: NT$21).............................................................26<br/>CMO (3009.TW; Underweight; PT: NT$8)...............................................................27<br/>LG Display (034220 KS; Neutral; PT: W24,000)......................................................27<br/>Samsung Electronics (005930 KS; Neutral; PT: W410,000).....................................28<br/>Sony (6758 JP; Neutral; PT: &yen;1,830) .........................................................................28<br/>Sharp (6753 JP; Underweight; PT: &yen;550) ..................................................................29<br/>Panasonic (6752 JP; Neutral; PT: &yen;950) ....................................................................30<br/>Appendix: J.P. Morgan TFT-LCD model...............................31<br/>AUO (2409.TW; Underweight; PT: NT$21).............................................................38<br/>CMO (3009.TW; Underweight; PT: NT$8)...............................................................39<br/>AUO: Earnings model ............................................................42<br/>CMO: Earnings model ............................................................44<br/>CMO: Earnings model (cont’d)..............................................45<br/>AU Optronics: Summary of financials ..................................48<br/>Chi Mei Optoelectronics: Summary of financials ................49<br/>Global Tech Team List ...........................................................51</p><p></p><p>
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