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雷达卡
.. Global industrial capex was stronger than we
expected in H2 2008 (+2% YoY in both USD and
local currencies); we nonetheless make only
small changes to 2009 estimates leaving us
looking for a 13% fall in industrial capex
worldwide ?the first fall after 6 years of growth
.. We expect EMEA to see the weakest capex in 2009
(-14% YoY; Americas and APAC on our estimates
both -12%); by customer group short-cycle
industries will be weakest (-15%) whilst long-cycle
industries will be strongest (-4%) as companies
work through historically elevated orderbooks
.. Our new 2010e scenario is for low single-digit
capex growth, with long-cycle still benefitting
from orderbooks whilst short-cycle stabilises (no
material recovery): we forecast global industrial
capex growth of +4%; +4% in the Americas, +1%
in EMEA and +7% in APAC
Fastest capex slowdown in modern era
This is the fourth edition of a research publication we publish half-yearly,
designed as a companion to our monthly report, Around the World in 80
Datapoints. With that report we established a framework for thinking
about global capex (three regions, five customer industry groups, five
product categories) and provide monthly directional analysis. This report
adds quantitative analysis of the moving parts, and remains to our
knowledge unique in the marketplace in doing so.
Fastest capex slowdown in
modern era 3
Key top-down conclusions 3
Key stock picks 4
Capex by region 6
Capex by customer industry 9
Data by product category 15
PPI adjusted data 19
Sector capex 20
Capex by industry 21
Construction 21
Manufacturing 23
Process 25
Utilities 27
Transport 29
Capex by product 31
Production technology 31
Building technology 33
Power technology 35
Commercial vehicles 37
Railways 39
Civil aerospace 41
Shipbuilding 43
Regional summaries 45
Regional data 46
Americas 46
EMEA 48
Asia-Pacific 50
Appendix: assumptions &
sources 52
Assumptions 53
Sources 53
Disclosure appendix 64
Disclaimer 71
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