汇丰银行:新兴国家资本市场资金流动研究报告2009年2月

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􀀗 The total size of GEM funds has
fallen 23% in three months…
􀀗 GEM mutual fund inflows move into
positive territory after six months of
net outflows
􀀗 Latin America is the preferred region
for GEM fund managers
This report looks at liquidity flows around GEMs. It
uses data from EmergingPortfolio (whose latest data
refers to the end of December) and information about
flows across the capital account of the balance of
payments, as well as about domestic pension funds and
mutual fund behaviour where this is available.
Between September and December 2008 the total size
of GEM funds fell 23%, Asia ex Japan funds by 17%,
EMEA funds by 55% and Latam funds by 37%. In EM,
we believe Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Egypt
stand out. We are overweight Latam and the GCC.
Latam is the preferred region for fund managers and GEM
fund managers have moved to overweight Brazil while
Latam funds are tending towards neutral on Brazil. We
believe that Brazil has a sound financial system, while
external debt and refinancing concerns are limited.

In EMEA, GEM funds are overweight Turkey while
Eastern European funds see the Czech Republic as a
safe haven. There have been strong inflows into Czech
Republic, South Africa and Hungary in the region.
In Russia, the outlook for equities is improving slowly
but uncertainties remain about the exchange rate
adjustment and the lack of clarity on the oil price
outlook. GEM and Eastern Europe funds are reducing
their weights in Russia.
In Asia, fund managers are overweight Hong Kong and
Singapore. In this region there have been prominent
inflows in China, Indonesia and Thailand. India
continues to see equity outflows.

目录

HSBC weightings 3
International fund flows 5
Foreign flows into GEMs equities 6
Foreign flows into EMEA equities 7
Czech Republic 9
Hungary 10
Poland 11
Russia 12
Turkey 13
South Africa 14
Israel 15
Egypt 16
Foreign flows into Asian equities 17
Korea 20
Taiwan 21
China 22
India 23
Indonesia 24
Malaysia 25
Philippines 26
Thailand 27
Foreign flows into LatAm equities 28
Brazil 30
Mexico 31
Domestic fund flows 33
Turkish mutual fund behaviour 34
Polish pension and mutual fund behaviour 35
Korean and Taiwan domestic inflows 36
Indian mutual funds 37
Ownership data 39
EMEA 40
Asia 41
Disclosure appendix 44
Disclaimer 46

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汇丰银行:新兴国家资本市场资金流动研究报告2009年2月
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