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雷达卡
30 March 2009
World Outlook
At an inflection point
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APPENDIX 1
Economics Global Markets Research Macro
Economic Outlook
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Once again we had to revise down our global forecasts substantially
compared to the previous World Outlook published in early December
2008. However, in our new baseline forecast we continue to envisage a
stabilization and modest increase in activity in the industrial countries
and a more noticeable pick-up in emerging market countries in 2010,
coupled with a small increase in global inflation.
Although we consider the economic outlook sketched above to be the
most likely outcome, we see it subject to a much higher degree of
uncertainty than usual. Risks are big and lie both on the up and
downside. Whether the baseline or the risk scenarios materialise will in
our view depend critically on the success of the stabilisation policies
presently undertaken in the US.
Our research of previous financial crises, and especially the Great
Depression of the early 1930s, led us to conclude that recovery basically
depends on four factors successfully coming together: (i) monetary
easing; (ii) fiscal easing; (iii) bank restructuring; and (iv) a boost to
confidence. At present, the US appears closest to fulfilling all four of
these conditions for recovery.
But downside risks to the baseline scenario are significant as well. Most
importantly, failure of the bank restructuring programme in the US could
induce a renewed tightening of credit conditions, leading to a deeper
and more extended economic slump at the global level.
Global Overview
At an inflection point ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
Geopolitics
Smart Diplomacy and Freedom of Action ........................................................................................................................ 7
US Equity Strategy
Still Waiting For the Bail-In............................................................................................................................................... 9
Commodities
A battle between reflation & deflation ........................................................................................................................... 11
US
Economic stress intensifies........................................................................................................................................... 13
Japan
Already in depression .................................................................................................................................................... 17
Euroland
An even deeper downturn and even slower recovery.................................................................................................... 19
Germany: Suffering from strong export dependency..................................................................................................... 21
Other EMU economies: Zone of vulnerability ................................................................................................................ 22
UK
The worst post-war recession? - Sizeable stimulus may take time to have its full effect .............................................. 23
Other European countries
Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland ....................................................................................................................... 25
CE3
Battling several headwinds............................................................................................................................................ 27
Peripheral dollar bloc
Australia expected to outperform relative to rest of $-bloc............................................................................................ 29
Asia (ex Japan)
Recession deepens in Asia, but China shows resilience................................................................................................ 31
Latin America
This year recession to be milder and shorter than in the developed world.................................................................... 33
EMEA
Synchronized slowdown................................................................................................................................................ 35
Forecast tables
Key economic indicators................................................................................................................................................ 37
Interest rates ................................................................................................................................................................. 38
Exchange rates .............................................................................................................................................................. 39
Contacts ....................................................................................................................................................................... 40
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