德意志银行08年全球经济展望

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[下载]Global Outlook 08:Partly sunny with a risk of
thunderstorms
 

作者：Deutsche Bank

资源类别：报告

资源格式: PDF 48 Pages 英 788kb

时间：17 December 2007

目录:Global Outlook 2008
Partly sunny with a risk of thunderstorms........................................................................................................................4
Geopolitics
An extraordinary document changes the game ................................................................................................................8
Commodities
A powerful event-risk asset class.....................................................................................................................................9
US
Staying out of recession.................................................................................................................................................11
Japan
Further delay in recovery for domestic reasons..............................................................................................................15
Euroland
ECB to cushion the 2008 downturn …............................................................................................................................17
Germany: Euro pain should be limited, domestic demand remains supportive..............................................................19
France: No brightening for the 2008 outlook ..................................................................................................................20
Italy: Sustained improvement remains elusive................................................................................................................21
Spain, Netherlands .........................................................................................................................................................22
Other Euro Area..............................................................................................................................................................23
UK
Growth slowing amid inflation concerns........................................................................................................................25
Other European countries
Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland.......................................................................................................................27
CE4
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovak Republic ..................................................................................................29
Peripheral dollar bloc
Canada’s exposure to the U.S. sets the BoC on a divergent path ..................................................................................31
Asia (ex Japan)
Not quite decoupling, but more resilient in the face of G3 growth shocks ....................................................................33
Latin America
Still robust but vulnerable to commodity markets ..........................................................................................................35
EMEA
High inflation and high current account deficits ..............................................................................................................37
Forecast tables
Key economic indicators ................................................................................................................................................39
Interest rates ..................................................................................................................................................................40
Exchange rates ...............................................................................................................................................................41
Long-term forecasts .......................................................................................................................................................42
Contacts .......................................................................................................................................................................44

 

 

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