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Will New iPhones Let Intel Inside?
Intel may get some share of iPhone's modem chip business, but Qualcomm likely to keep lead
By DAN GALLAGHER
Mar 11, 2016 11:03 am ET
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Intel’s mobile efforts have long been stymied by the fact that it has remained shut out of the most profitable smartphone on the market — the iPhone.
That may be changing. Rumors have circulated for months that Intel may grab some market share from Qualcomm for the modem chip, or baseband processor, that handles the iPhone’s connections to wireless networks. Morgan Stanley, Cowen & Co. and Credit Suisse this week all noted signs that production of a new Intel chip is gearing up ahead of the expected iPhone 7 launch this fall.
Less clear is whether the smaller iPhone that Apple reportedly plans to unveil at a March 21 event would also make use of these chips. And it’s worth noting that rumors of an Intel chip in the iPhone have circulated in regard to prior generations of the smartphone.
Qualcomm controls about 60% of the baseband market, according to Strategy Analytics. So it makes sense for a major buyer like Apple to seek out a second source on a key component. But analysts say Qualcomm is highly unlikely to lose the entire iPhone business, given that its baseband chips are still superior to the competition.
Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein estimates that losing 30% of the Apple business would cut about 7% off Wall Street’s consensus earnings projection for Qualcomm this fiscal year. But Wall Street is already projecting a 14% decline in Qualcomm’s chipset revenue for the current fiscal year. And with the stock already down 28% over the last 12 months, Qualcomm investors may be pricing in even bleaker prospects.
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