麦格理：中国啤酒行业研究报告2009年2月

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<p>Chinese brewery CHINA<br/>20 February 2009<br/>Inside<br/>Not ready for cheer 3<br/>Comparative valuation 5<br/>Beer sales not recession proof in<br/>China 7<br/>Margin upside under pressure 8<br/>Risk factors to brewery industry 20<br/>Appendices 21<br/>Coverage universe<br/>Co Code Curr Price Rec TP Upside<br/>Tsingtao-H 168 HK HK$ 14.56 UP 12.30 -16%<br/>CRE 291 HK HK$ 12.08 UP 9.90 -18%<br/>Yanjing 000729<br/>CH<br/>Rmb 13.31 N 12.10 -9%<br/>Source: Macquarie Research, February 2009<br/>Analyst<br/>Leah Jiang<br/>86 21 2412 9020 <a href="mailto:leah.jiang@macquarie.com">leah.jiang@macquarie.com</a><br/>Not ready for cheer<br/>We initiate coverage on Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK) with an Underperform rating<br/>and a target price of HK$12.30 (16% potential downside) and on Yanjing<br/>Brewery (000729 CH) with a Neutral rating. Despite falling barley prices, we<br/>argue that the unfavourable industry structure is likely to limit margin upside for<br/>the brewers in the next few years.<br/>Beer sales not recession proof in China<br/>Historically beer sales growth in China would weaken during economic<br/>downcycles. We expect weak industry volume growth in 2008 to extend into<br/>2009. Over 50% of beer sales in China are generated from on-premises<br/>consumption, mainly dining out activities, which are likely to slow down.<br/>Limited margin upside<br/>􀂃 High channel margin squeezes brewer margins. The beer distribution<br/>channel in China is highly fragmented and multi-tiered, and this gives<br/>distributors a disproportionately high bargaining power with the brewers.<br/>Channel margin can be as high as 50–100% along the industry value chain.<br/>􀂃 Margin sacrificed for market share. The brewery market in China is still<br/>very much regionally focused. Each of the top 3 brewers has a dominant<br/>presence in only 2–3 provinces. Competition is likely to worsen following the<br/>addition of more than 15% new capacity (by our estimates) in 2007–08.<br/>􀂃 Industry consolidation needs to go further. The top 3 brewers in China<br/>account for only 40% of the market. Consolidation has been slowed down by<br/>local protectionism and the lack of truly national brands.<br/>􀂃 Falling barley prices not likely to relieve margin pressure. Despite high<br/>barley costs, margins in 2008 will not comprise a low base for 2009.<br/>Moreover, Tsingtao and Yanjing both have expensive barley inventory that will<br/>not be used until 2Q09 and 1Q09, respectively.<br/>Underperform on Tsingtao and CRE, Neutral on Yanjing<br/>Underperform rating on Tsingtao. Despite having a wide coverage of 18<br/>provinces, Tsingtao has over 50% market share in only two provinces. It does<br/>not have a leading position in the remaining provinces. Though it owns the bestknown<br/>beer brand in China, Tsingtao has never fully tap the potential of its<br/>brand, sales volume for which was only 38% of group volume and 5% of the total<br/>China volume. Our FY09 earnings forecasts are 5% below consensus.<br/>Underperform rating on China Resources Enterprise (CRE). We see a<br/>weakening trend in the brewery and supermarket sectors, two growth drivers for<br/>CRE. Its cyclical businesses continue to operate in a difficult environment. The<br/>cyclical and low-growth businesses still account for 56% FY09E earnings.<br/>Neutral rating on Yanjing. Yanjing focuses on five core markets from which it<br/>generates 90% of sales volume. This allows it to achieve higher utilisation rates<br/>and better per tonne profits.</p><p>Fig 1 Summary of recommendation<br/>Company Key points<br/>Tsingtao Brewery (168.HK,<br/>HK$14.56, UP,<br/>TP: HK$12.30.)<br/>􀂃 Initiate on Tsingtao-H with Underperform rating and target price of HK$12.30 (16% downside).<br/>􀂃 Despite wide coverage of 18 provinces, Tsingtao has over 50% market share in only two provinces. It has no leading<br/>market position in the remaining provinces, competition in which may continue to threaten its margins.<br/>􀂃 We believe the Tsingtao brand (the best-known beer brand in China) remains under-exploited, accounting for only 5%<br/>of China volume and 38% of Tsingtao Brewery’s volume.<br/>􀂃 Some small loss-making plants acquired before 2001 have been dragging down Tsingtao’s earnings growth. There is<br/>little chance of a turnaround for these plants, and so Tsingtao has to bear operating losses from these small plants or<br/>impairment losses if these are closed down.<br/>􀂃 Brand consolidation replacing tier-3 with tier-2 brands is nearly complete. Thus, any product mix improvement would<br/>depend mainly on improving the contribution of the Tsingtao brand. Efficient promotional efforts would be key.<br/>􀂃 Valuation looks demanding at 21x FY09E PER, which is 80% premium on the 11x for the leading global brewers, and<br/>even 10% premium on the 19x for the HK-listed food and beverage stocks.<br/>􀂃 We derive our Tsingtao-H target price using a DCF model, with 9.7% WACC and a 10-year growth stage.<br/>China Resources<br/>Enterprises (291.HK,<br/>HK$12.08, UP, TP:<br/>HK$9.90)<br/>􀂃 Maintain Underperform rating with target price of HK$9.90.<br/>􀂃 CRE is a conglomerate holding 51% of CR Snow, the largest brewer in China by volume. Its other businesses include<br/>retail, beverage, food processing and distribution, textile, investment property, and ports.<br/>􀂃 We highlight near-term earnings risks ahead of the FY08 results, as its key drivers – brewery and supermarkets – are<br/>both showing a weakening industry trend. For its cyclical businesses, such as ports, textile, and logistics, we expect the<br/>operating environment to remain challenging in 2009.<br/>􀂃 Despite the common impression that CRE is mainly a brewery and supermarket business in China, we highlight that<br/>56% of FY09E earnings are still generated by cyclical or low-growth businesses.<br/>􀂃 Valuation at 15x FY09E PER, with potential downside to earnings forecasts.<br/>􀂃 We derive our target price based on sum of the parts, and then applying a 15% holding company discount. PER is used<br/>to value most of the individual segments.<br/>Yanjing Brewery<br/>(000729.CH, Rmb13.31, N,<br/>TP: Rmb12.10)<br/>􀂃 Initiate on Yanjing with Neutral rating and target price of HK$.12.10.<br/>􀂃 Yanjing focuses on five core markets, from which it generates 90% of sales volume. This allows it to achieve higher<br/>utilisation rates and better per tonne profits.<br/>􀂃 Yanjing is a national brand but, compared with Tsingtao, still needs to strengthen its brand influence at the national<br/>level.<br/>􀂃 We derive our target price using DCF, with 8.4% WACC and 10-year growth stage. This implies 25x 2009E PER, with a<br/>48% premium over the forward PER implied by our Tsingtao-H target price. This is largely in line with the 51% PER<br/>premium that the China A-share market is trading at over the Hong Kong market.</p><p></p><p> 323097.pdf (587.92 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)

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麦格理：中国啤酒行业研究报告2009年2月
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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 麦格理 distribution valuation industry 研究报告 Chinese factors

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