Table of contents
Beer, a sector worth waiting for................................................................ 3
Growing, but at a slowing rate ................................................................. 7
4 factors driving China beer consumption .............................................. 11
Consolidation, the key theme in 2009-10 .............................................. 17
Distribution, really complex in China...................................................... 25
Margin expansion for leading breweries ................................................. 27
The outlook: not so pessimistic.............................................................. 30
Risks in the Chinese beer industry.......................................................... 31
China Resources Snow Brewery .............................................................. 32
Beijing Yanjing, a Story of Evolution ....................................................... 40
Henan Kingstar Brewery Co. Ltd. ............................................................ 44
Chongqing Brewery Co. Ltd.................................................................... 46
Rethinking the formation of A-B InBev ................................................... 48
Initiation: Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK)...................... 59
Investment thesis .................................................................................. 60
Valuation............................................................................................... 64
Well-positioned for future growth.......................................................... 78
Earnings outlook ................................................................................... 83
Significant margin expansion in 2009-10............................................... 87
Marketing and distribution..................................................................... 93
Financial strength.................................................................................. 95
Upside risks to our SELL call................................................................. 100
Company overview .............................................................................. 102