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Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Inflation at risk................................................................................... 4
Historical sector downgrade .....................................................................................................4
Tightening measures to continue..............................................................................................5
Lending to developer ................................................................................................................6
Lending to consumers ..............................................................................................................6
Credit crunch to developers ............................................................. 7
Contraction of developer loans .................................................................................................7
Land cost pressures to ease for developers.............................................................................9
Cash flow is crucial for developers .........................................................................................10
Growth deceleration ....................................................................... 12
Supply shortage remains in the short term.............................................................................12
Managed growth for consumer mortgage..............................................................................12
Affordability still intact for overall China ..................................................................................13
Increasing Housing Fund penetration will boost affordability .................................................14
Demand and ASP remain resilient with some regional weakness ..........................................15
Investment properties..................................................................... 16
Positive rental reversions........................................................................................................16
Large metropolitan cities remain the focus.............................................................................16
Investment strategy ........................................................................ 18
Five factors re-arranged for stock selection ............................................................................18
Buy leaders with track-record and strong B/S.........................................................................18
Avoid highly leveraged developers and landlords ...................................................................18
Buy commercial play at reasonable price................................................................................18
Valuation framework ...............................................................................................................19
China Vanke ..................................................................................... 21
COLI .................................................................................................. 33
Guangzhou R&F............................................................................... 42
Franshion.......................................................................................... 52
RREEF CCT ....................................................................................... 59
Appendix A....................................................................................... 66
Housing affordability ...............................................................................................................66
Beijing ....................................................................................................................................66
Shanghai ................................................................................................................................67
Tianjin.....................................................................................................................................67
Chongqing..............................................................................................................................68
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