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英文文献：Modeling the Cattle Replacement Decisions-建模牛的替代决策
英文文献作者：Arnade, Carlos Anthony,Jones, Keithly G.
英文文献摘要：
In this paper we evaluate the performance of a dynamic model of cattle replacement and culling decisions. We derive the price of cattle when it is treated as a unit of capital and evaluate various rates of adjustment of the cattle herd to determine the length of the cattle cycle. Replacement decision is modeled as the solution to a dynamic optimization problem where the breeding herd is viewed as a capital asset that is capable of producing two outputs: calves and culled cows. The own-price, replacement and interest rate elasticities calculated for both the short-run and long-run time-frames suggest fairly rapid adjustment rates. Tests of cycle length revealed a 14-year cattle cycle.
在本文中，我们评估了一个动态模型的性能，牛的替代和淘汰决策。我们推导出作为资本单位的牛的价格，并评估牛群的各种调整率，以确定牛周期的长度。替代决策被建模为一个动态优化问题的解决方案，在这个问题中，繁殖群体被视为一种资本资产，能够生产两种产出:犊牛和被宰杀的奶牛。对短期和长期时间框架计算的自有价格、替代率和利率弹性表明，调整利率相当迅速。对周期长度的测试显示，牛的周期为14年。
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