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Emerging Markets Macro and Strategy Outlook
Out of the frying pan? Fiscal vulnerability takes centre stage
At the risk of great oversimplification, we think emerging economies have passed
through two phases of the global crisis, and are now entering a third.
The first phase could be labelled the Financial Vulnerability Phase. At the centre
of this was the loan-to-deposit ratio. Countries with a high loan-to-deposit ratio
were vulnerable to the immediate consequences of the collapse in foreign banks’
desire for counterparty or credit risk; and their need to bring resources back to
their own balance sheet.
An External Vulnerability Phase may have succeeded this, in which the central
concern was with countries who, regardless of the health of their banking systems,
became vulnerable because of the large size of their external financing needs.
The External Vulnerability Phase coincided in some cases with the Financial
Vulnerability Phase.
The External Vulnerability Phase seems to be at an end, thanks to i) sharp
improvements in trade balances in many countries; ii) the IMF’s commitment to
inject larger amounts of liquidity into emerging economies on easier terms; and iii)
the re-emergence of risk appetite, particularly among bond and equity investors.
The import compression that has helped to improve the trade balance in many
countries has a flipside in very weak growth. That in turn helps to give rise to the
third phase of the crisis, a Fiscal Vulnerability Phase, as budgets come under
pressure. Thanks to budget discipline in many countries during the past few
years, we believe the Fiscal Vulnerability Phase poses fewer risks than what has
passed before. The countries most at risk here are likely to be ones with
unrealistic budget assumptions and high debt/GDP ratios.
目录
Out of the frying pan? Fiscal vulnerability takes centre stage 3
Annual Indicators 10
Macro Summary Charts 11
Global Macroeconomic Indicators 12
Citi vs Consensus Forecasts 13
Asia 15
China 16
Hong Kong 20
India 24
Indonesia 28
Malaysia 32
Pakistan 36
Philippines 40
Singapore 44
South Korea 48
Taiwan 52
Thailand 56
Vietnam 60
CEEMEA 65
Czech Republic 66
Egypt 70
Hungary 74
Israel 78
Kazakhstan 82
Nigeria 86
Poland 90
Romania 94
Russia 98
Slovakia 102
South Africa 106
Turkey 110
Ukraine 114
Latin America 119
Argentina 120
Brazil 124
Chile 128
Colombia 132
Ecuador 136
Mexico 140
Panama 144
Peru 148
Venezuela 152
Appendix A-1 158
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