2010年3月台湾证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月台湾证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：

Sentiment moves the Taiwan
stock market
 Our look at sentiment indicators
supports our view on Taiex strength
 We reiterate our TAIEX target of 10,000, a
28% rise from current levels
Since the KMT’s defeat in February by-elections, the Taiwan
market has seen very light news flow. Sentiment has been
insipid, if not negative.
However, trends in stock recommendations, consumer
confidence and the government’s approval rating all show
promise of a rebound for the Taiwan market this year. This
view is further supported by the return of foreign institutional
investors since Chinese New Year.
We think sentiment is on the brink of turning optimistic and
that the recent slump in sentiment gives Taiwan room to
surprise on the upside.
 Sell-side analysts in Taiwan are generally more cautious
than in other Asian markets, leaving more room for
upside surprises. What’s more, history tells us Taiwan is
likely to recover ahead of other Asian markets.
 Consumer confidence has improved 11% from a month
ago, driven by improving job prospects.
 Institutional investors have returned after the holiday
sell-off. Since Chinese New Year, foreign investors
bought TWD47bn and local trusts bought TWD2.8bn.
 President Ma’s approval rating presents most risk to
sentiment, but it has moved from a low of 20% to 26%.
We remain confident that Taiwan will be re-rated in 2H10
after ECFA is signed.
We track the performance of our model portfolio and make
minor adjustments to its constituents. We continue to
overweight Tech, Financials, Materials and Retail. We
reiterate our year-end TAIEX target of 10,000, which
implies 12m forward PE of 18x and a PB of 2.4x, a return to
historical averages.

Taiwan storybook 5
A sentimental market 8
Sentiment moves Taiwan 8
Consensus analyst view 8
Consumer confidence 10
Investor sentiment 11
Government approval rating 12
Model portfolio 12
Earnings 15
Valuation 18
Attractive valuations 18
Valuation 20
Fund flows 21
Foreign institutional investors 21
Local institutional investors 21
Fund flows 22
Taiwan datapack 23
MSCI Taiwan price level 24
MSCI Taiwan price-to-book multiples 26
MSCI Taiwan dividend yields 28
PB vs ROE 30
Disclosure appendix 40
Disclaimer 43

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