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Stock markets slide on Trump victory but losses pared
Mexican peso plunges, Bund yields dive and gold surges as havens sought
13 MINUTES AGO by: Jamie Chisholm in London, Global Markets Commentator
Tuesday 08:50 GMT. Global financial markets are rattled, with stocks and the Mexican peso sliding, after Donald Trump won the race for the White House.
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Nervous investors are piling in to supposed haven assets, boosting the Japanese yen, gold and selected government bonds after the Republican candidate secured a historical upset by defeating Hillary Clinton, his Democratic rival.
The Republican party is also expected to control the Senate and House of Representatives.
Markets have shown over recent months that they were wary of a Trump presidency, with many investors fearful the property mogul’s protectionist policies would harm trade.
“With so many years of low and non-inclusive growth, we are witnessing the politics of anger at play, a phenomenon that polls have underestimated on both sides of the Atlantic. Both the establishment and expert opinion are being challenged in a big way,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz, told the FT.
Coming into the election investors had positioned for a Clinton victory. Now those bets are being unwound — though many of the more savage moves seen earlier in the session are being pared notably, an improvement that Kathleen Brooks at City Index is partly down to Mr Trump’s acceptance speech.
“Trump definitely sounded more Presidential than he has done at any stage during the election campaign,” she said. “In fact, one could argue that this outsider has delivered an establishment-style victory speech, which is soothing stressed markets.”
Still, there are some stand out moves in the market. The Mexican peso is off the session’s record lows but still down 9.4 per cent to 20.0230 per dollar, on worries Mr Trump’s anti trade stance will badly hit the US’s southern neighbour.
“In a low liquidity context, markets are scrambling to reprice to the reality of a very tight presidential race. Markets are set to experience forced selling and disorderly deleveraging in Wednesday’s trading session,” said Mr El-Erian.
US index futures suggest the S&P 500 — Wall Street’s equity benchmark that tends to set the global stock market mood — will plunge 2 per cent when the opening bell rings for Wednesday’s session in New York. Futures at one point fell 5 per cent, a drop that triggered electronic trading curbs which are designed to contain the carnage.
In Europe the Stoxx 600 index is down 1 per cent as banks slide and energy groups are pressured by Brent crude losing 1.1 per cent to 45.54 dollars a barrel.
Precious metals in contrast are enjoying heavy inflows as traders seek traditional havens at times of political stress. Gold is jumping 1.8 per cent to 1,300 dollars an ounce and silver is up 1.6 per cent to 18.65 dollars an ounce.
Government bonds are also attracting buyers as investors demand safety, with the yield on the policy-sensitive US two-year note off 4bp to 0.82 per cent. The benchmark 10-year German Bund yield is down 5bp to 0.14 per cent.
“This can be classified as a classic risk off, rush to safe haven moment, with the reactive assumption that this will probably rule out a Fed rate hike in December, given expectations of further market turmoil,” Marc Ostwald, analyst at ADM Investor Services, said.
US 10-year yields had fallen by more than a dozen basis points but are now off just 1bp to 1.85 per cent, a recovery which Mr Ostwald said reflected traders assuming a “Trump budget binge”.
US Election 2016
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Market moves in the run-up to the US vote have been similar to those which preceded the Brexit vote
Steepest US stock sell-offs
With US futures trade pointing to a decline of over 4 per cent for the S&P 500, here is a rundown of Wall Street’s biggest falls
Expectations that the Fed may now be on hold are hitting the US dollar relative to other major currencies though here, too, early sharp moves have been pared. The euro is up 0.7 per cent to 1.1101 dollars, sterling is gaining 0.4 per cent to 1.2428 dollars and forex “havens” like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are higher.
The Swissie is up 0.4 per cent to SFr0.9740 and the yen is 1.6 per cent stronger at ￥103.45, a move that had delivered additional downward pressure on the Japanese stock market, leaving the Nikkei 225 with a 5.2 per cent loss.
Other moves across the Asia-Pacific region were almost as bad, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shedding 2.2 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi falling 2.3 per cent.
“Lightning appears to have struck twice as Trump is set for an unexpected victory, following the shock Brexit vote earlier in the year. Pollsters, pundits and markets probably need to take stock, figure out how they got 2016 so wrong and what this portends for 2017 as the electoral calendar is also quite crowded,” said Geoffrey Yu, head of the UK investment office at UBS Wealth Management.
“We should put these market moves in perspective — a near certain chance of a Hillary Clinton victory was priced in, so the pullback on this scale is not a total surprise.”
Colin McLean, managing director of SVM Asset Management, said: “Trump is an immediate negative for markets around the world,” but added that fear of the unknown can be overdone by markets.
“Markets may take a few months to assess winners and losers in the new world order, but the US and world economy start from a position of growth. The corporate earnings background is favourable, with an earnings season that is beating expectations. With the election over, US investors should look more at individual company results. This would see the market favour sectors such as banks and technology that have been beating earnings expectations,” Mr McLean concluded.
Two sectors on the rise are pharmaceuticals and mining. The former has been under pressure of late on fears Mrs Clinton would adopt a harsher regulatory environment. Meanwhile, the falling dollar and hopes for a US infrastructure boost, alongside a less green industrial policy, are supporting commodities.
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