瑞士信贷：日本办公室电子行业研究报告2009年5月

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Precision sector
SECTOR REVIEW
Analysis of Jan-Mar data by region for copiers,
LBP and MFP
■  In this report, we analyze MFC (multifunction copiers) LBP (laser beam printers;
single-function LBP) and MFP (multifunction printers; multifunction LBP) data on
a worldwide (WW), US and Western Europe (WE) basis. We present volume
share trends by region and product speed, etc. Hardware serves as a lagging
indicator, whereas for the office equipment machines in-field provide a key
leading indicator for the consumables outlook.
■  MFC: Color MFC WW shipments totaled 299,000 units (-5% YoY, Oct-Dec +2%)
in Jan-Mar. Color MFC with speeds of 10ppm or below and 21-44ppm posted
negative growth whereas those with speeds of 45ppm-plus rose 17%—albeit the
previously strong growth slowed. By region, US shipments totaled 66,000 units
(-1%, Oct-Dec +3%) and WE 108,000 units (+3%, flat). High-speed 45ppm-plus
equipment slumped 10% in the US but rose a brisk 30% in WE. Ricoh’s WW
share rose 4pp QoQ to 29%, whereas Xerox and Canon suffered share declines.
Ricoh opened a large gap in market share with itself and second-ranked Konica
Minolta Holdings (KMH), taking a 35% chunk of the US market versus KMH’s
19%. In WE it commanded a 31% share versus KMH’s 17%. WW shipments of
black/white (B/W) MFC totaled 578,000 units (-21%, -15%), with US shipments
totaling 121,000 units (-29%, -21%), and WE 138,000 units (-23%, -15%). Ricoh
boasted top WW share at 21 (Canon 18%).
■  LBP/MFP: Color LBP WW shipments fell sharply to 810,000 units (-26%, -8%).
By region, US shipments totaled 156,000 units (-32%, -14%), and WE 310,000
units (-20%, flat). We believe demand is shifting to color MFP, for which WW
shipments totaled 330,000 (+19%, +41%). LBP and MFP shipments combined
fell 17% YoY (Oct-Dec +1%).
■  WW shipments for B/W LBP totaled 412,000 units (-25%, -21%), while those of
MFP totaled 147,000 units (-17%, -4%), for LBP and MFP combined to suffer a
23% decline (Oct-Dec -17%). Both color and B/W are suffering severe slumps in
the US, whereas the level of deterioration in Europe is relatively light.
■  Implications for office equipment sector: For copiers, our medium- to longterm
top pick heading into 2010 is Ricoh, which is seeing growth for mid/highspeed
copiers. We are cautious on KMH for now, given the slowdown in the
European market. The overall market trended noted above is running contrary to
this (high-speed US equipment slowing but WE accelerating), but for Ricoh,
45ppm-plus WW shipments climbed 76%, US fell 6% and WE increased 5.7x.
Based on this, we estimate Ricoh’s machines in-field (MIF) mix is improving
through mid-/high-speed equipment accounting for a rising share of its global
shipments. On the other hand, KMH posted a 14% decline (45ppm-plus, down
8%) in its main arena the WE market, and thus we see no reason to change our
basic stance. According to local word on the ground, the US is showing signs of
bottoming out, whereas there is no indication of this in Europe, according to most
local sources. For a detailed look at earnings trends see our 19 May report,
Copier industry: Jan-Mar trends worsen overall, expect major sales bottom in 1H
FY3/10.

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