瑞士信贷：亚洲干散货行业研究报告2009年5月

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We expect further earnings deterioration in 2010, and P/B valuations
are not attractive, based on projected RoAEs. While commodity
demand may improve sequentially from a low level, supply-side
pressure is likely to cap the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) in the next two years.
Assuming a historical high scrapping rate of 4-7% for the fleet and 30%
order book cancellations (base case), the sector remains in oversupply.
■ In the near term, we see the BDI under pressure due to high China iron
ore inventory and a seasonally weaker summer. Over the next two to
three years, industry oversupply is likely to cap the BDI at 1,300-2,000
points (estimated cost break-even level for most owned vessels).
■ For China Cosco and STX Pan Ocean, with their big charter-in fleets
and capex commitments, we think their losses will continue in 2010,
with significant balance sheet deterioration. With the expiry of higherpriced
cargo contracts, Pacific Basin is likely to swing into small
losses while China Shipping Development, Maybulk and U-Ming are
likely to see earnings decline. Sincere has the most defensive earnings
profile, in our view, based on its long-term contracts.
■ After the recent rally, we think share prices have factored in a strong
cyclical recovery. Stocks are currently trading at 0.9-2.2x versus FY09-
10 ROE of -21% to 16%, which are not attractive in our view. We
downgrade CSD to UNDERPERFORM from Outperform and reiterate
our UNDERPERFORM ratings on China Cosco, Maybulk, STX Pan
Ocean and U-Ming. Pacific Basin has a strong balance sheet and the
lowest P/B, but it is fairly valued, along with Sincere.

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关键词：行业研究报告 行业研究 研究报告 瑞士信贷 干散货 研究报告 亚洲 信贷 瑞士 散货

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