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雷达卡
Indonesia Banks Sector
SECTOR REVIEW
Navigating choppy waters
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Expected interest rate cuts have created positive sentiment for the
Indonesian banks sector, but we believe this may be short-lived, given:
1) 2009E real GDP growth (3.8%) could be the lowest since 2001,
leading to a soft loan growth outlook and the threat of higher NPLs.
2) In the near term, we expect soft 2009E GDP growth to be the more
dominant factor driving 2009E NPLs up (136% YoY growth, 2009E
NPL 7.4% ratio), shadowing the impact of lower interest rates.
3) Higher NPLs may result in higher 2009E credit costs (132% YoY
growth, 2.8% of loans) and thus, lower 2009E earnings (a 9% drop).
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We see risks of share price corrections given: 1) the possibility of
softer-than-expected fundamentals, 2) that Indonesian banks are
trading at the higher end of the historical valuation range and at a
premium to their regional peers and 3) 28% potential downside on
2009E consensus’ earnings, which we believe have yet to adequately
address the risk of higher credit costs.
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Overall, we would not chase the current share price and would wait for
a better entry point.
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2010 may be brighter than 2009, but we recommend only long-term
investors who are willing to overlook a soft 2009 begin accumulating
and even then only on share price corrections.
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In order of priority, our preferences within the Indonesian banks sector
are: BBRI (OUTPERFORM), BBCA (NEUTRAL), BMRI (NEUTRAL),
BDMN (UNDERPERFORM), BBNI (UNDERPERFORM) and PNBN. We
initiate coverage of PNBN with an UNDERPERFORM rating.
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