德意志银行：日本制药行业研究报告2009年4月

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Contents
Sector stance ..................................................................................... 5
"Marketweight" due to balance of negative and positive factors ............................................ 5
We recommend mid-tier firms over the majors .................................................................... 5
Big picture.......................................................................................................................... 5
Valuation and risk.................................................................................................................. 6
Negative factors .................................................................................................................. 7
Positive factors.................................................................................................................. 17
Review of basic information ahead of results............................... 21
Schedule (as of 15 April) .................................................................................................... 21
Key points for each company............................................................................................. 22
Price Performance ........................................................................... 23
Possibility of devaluation.................................................................................................... 23
Company trends .............................................................................. 25
Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502)........................................................ 26
Key points ......................................................................................................................... 26
NHI drug price revisions in April 2008................................................................................. 26
Exchange rates.................................................................................................................. 27
FY3/09 company guidance................................................................................................. 27
Post-results checklist......................................................................................................... 27
Changes in development pipeline....................................................................................... 28
Supplemental materials for earnings forecasts ................................................................... 29
Astellas Pharma (4503).................................................................... 38
Key points......................................................................................................................... 38
NHI drug price revisions in April 2008 ................................................................................... 38
Exchange rates.................................................................................................................. 39
FY3/09 company guidance................................................................................................. 39
Post-results checklist......................................................................................................... 39
Changes in development pipeline....................................................................................... 40
Supplemental materials for earnings forecasts ................................................................... 40
Shionogi & Co. (4507)...................................................................... 44
Key points ......................................................................................................................... 44
NHI drug price revisions in April 2008................................................................................. 44
Exchange rates.................................................................................................................. 45
FY3/09 company guidance................................................................................................. 45
Post-results checklist......................................................................................................... 45
Changes in development pipeline....................................................................................... 46
Supplemental materials for earnings forecasts ................................................................... 47
Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508).................................................. 52
Key points ......................................................................................................................... 52
NHI drug price revisions in April 2008................................................................................. 52
FY3/09 company guidance................................................................................................. 53
Post-results checklist......................................................................................................... 53
Changes in development pipeline....................................................................................... 54
Supplemental materials for earnings forecasts ................................................................... 55
Eisai (4523) ....................................................................................... 56
Key points ......................................................................................................................... 56
NHI drug price revisions in April 2008................................................................................. 56
Exchange rates.................................................................................................................. 57
FY3/09 company guidance................................................................................................. 57
Post-results checklist......................................................................................................... 57
Changes in development pipeline....................................................................................... 58
Supplemental materials for earnings forecasts ................................................................... 59
Ono Pharmaceutical (4528)............................................................. 62
Key points ......................................................................................................................... 62
NHI drug price revisions in April 2008................................................................................. 62
FY3/09 company guidance................................................................................................. 62
Post-results checklist......................................................................................................... 63
Changes in development pipeline....................................................................................... 63
Daiichi Sankyo (4568) ...................................................................... 64
Key points......................................................................................................................... 64
NHI drug price revisions in April 2008 ................................................................................... 64
Exchange rates.................................................................................................................. 65
FY3/09 company guidance................................................................................................. 65
Post-results checklist......................................................................................................... 65
Changes in development pipeline....................................................................................... 66
Supplemental materials for earnings forecasts ................................................................... 66
Taisho Pharmaceutical (4535)......................................................... 70
Key points ......................................................................................................................... 70
NHI drug price revisions in April 2008................................................................................. 70
FY3/09 company guidance................................................................................................. 70
Post-results checklist......................................................................................................... 71
Changes in development pipeline....................................................................................... 71
Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547) .......................................................... 72
Key points ......................................................................................................................... 72
NHI drug price revisions in April 2008................................................................................. 72
FY3/09 company guidance................................................................................................. 72
Post-results checklist......................................................................................................... 73
Changes in development pipeline....................................................................................... 73

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