摩根斯坦利：全球新兴证券市场投资策略报告2009年7月

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Strategy and Economics
4 Asia/GEMs Strategy Index Target Increased by
21% to 985 by June 2010 – but Raising More Cash
Jonathan Garner, Michael Wang, Vinicius Silva
6 Asia/EM Equity Strategy
Downgrade Korea, Turkey and Hungary to UW;
Upgrade Mexico, Indonesia and Czech
Jonathan Garner, Michael Wang, Vinicius Silva
9 Brazil Economics
Are Lower Real Rates Here to Stay?
Marcelo Carvalho
13 CEE Economics
No Longer a Bottomless Pit
Pasquale Diana
16 Colombia Economics
Looking Past the Bottom
Daniel Volberg
19 Israel Economics A Brief Rise in Inflation with
No Policy Implications?
Tevfik Aksoy
21 Russia Economics
Harder Choices for 2010
Oliver Weeks
25 South Korea Strategy
No Tightening in Sight but Rising Financial Burden
Chanik Park, Jason Pyo
27 Turkey Economics
Taking Stock and Revising Forecasts
Tevfik Aksoy
Industry Analysis
31 A/P Dry Bulk Shipping Binary Outcome for BDI;
Valuations Favor Defensive Companies
Sophie Loh, Chin Lim, Pey Herng Yap
Table of Contents (continued)
Contributing Editors: Joseph McVeigh (Editor-in-Chief), Simon George, Dan Perry
Abbreviations
NM Not meaningful NSA Not seasonally adjusted
NA Not applicable YTD Year to date
N/AV Not available YOY Year on year
FCF Free cash flow A Actual
FFO Funds from operations e Morgan Stanley Research estimates
SA Seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated
All of Morgan Stanley’s published equity research is available on the Internet through Client Link on http://www.morganstanley.com/.
If you wish to receive this service, please contact your institutional sales representative.
33 Brazil Education Grounds for a Re-Rating in
Multiples During 2010
Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan, Flavio Queiroz,
Gustavo Wigman, Alessandro Baldoni
35 China Coal Sector
Start of a New Upcycle
Wee-Kiat Tan, Sara Chan
37 China Pharmaceuticals
Investing in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)
Bin Li, Sean Wu, Christopher Lui
39 LatAm Pulp & Paper
Pulp Rally Priced In; Strong Real Capping Upside
Carlos De Alba, Bruno Montanari, Cesar Medina
41 Mexican Airports Rating Realignment as Traffic
Bottoms Out, Flu Fears Ease
Nicolai Sebrell, Augusto Ensiki
43 Russia Steel & Mining
Upgrading on Improving Market Conditions
Dmitriy Kolomytsyn, Marina Zavolock
45 Saudi Banks Regional Premium Deserved:
Riyad Bank Our Top Pick
Daniel Cowan, Magdalena Stoklosa
49 South Africa Banks
Earnings Trough in 2009:
Louis Chetty, Magdalena Stoklosa
51 Taiwan TFT LCD
Opportunities in Touch
Frank Wang, Jerry Su
Company Analysis
53 􀃇Cairn India Ltd.
The Action Starts Now
Vinay Jaising, Mayank Maheshwari, Surabhi Chandna
55 􀃇China National Building Material Company
Better Outlook in East China Cement Market &
Cheaper Valuation; Upgrade to OW
Sandy Niu, Kevin Shi, Charles Spencer
57 China Mobile Limited China Mobile at HK$100 –
What Would It Take?
Navin Killa, Yvonne Chow, Vincent Wu
59 Depa Ltd Solid Cash Position and Backlog –
Maintain OW
Muneeba Kayani, Menna Shams El Din
61 Foxconn Technology
Don’t Underestimate Pickup in Strength Starting
in August
Sharon Shih, Jasmine Lu
63 Grupo Financiero Banorte
Management Meeting Affirms Our Above-
Consensus View on EPS; Reiterate Overweight
Jorge Kuri. Jorge Chirino
65 KT Corp
Overlooked Value
Mitchell Kim, HyunTaek Lee
67 LG Display Under-Appreciation Leaves Room
for Strong Upside
Keon Han, Young Suk Shin
69 Norilsk Nickel Raising Price Target on New
Nickel Price Forecasts
Dmitriy Kolomytsyn, Marina Zavolock
71 􀃇Samsung Electronics
Awake From Long Slumber; Upgrading to
Overweight
Keon Han, Young Suk Shin
73 􀃇Sberbank Upgrading to Overweight; Longterm
Core Holding
Magdalena Stoklosa
Data
76 EM Economic Forecasts
79 EM Rating Table

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