摩根斯坦利：印度证券市场投资策略报告2009年10月

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Pause, Rewind, Replay
 Key Debate: Are Indian equities set up for a significant correction?
The market is up 100% since its low in March 2009, and is now up 92% over the trailing 12-months. Reported earnings growth is still tepid and
reforms are moving slower than expected by certain quarters. The central bank has been sending signals on a possible exit policy and at the
same time equity supply is burgeoning. Crude oil prices are threatening to move higher with negative consequences on India’s macro whereas
relative valuations do not seem attractive anymore. India is among the top 5 performing markets globally this year, and it would seem a lot of the
good news and more is in the price. Does all of this mean that Indian equities are set for a significant correction?
 Indian equities in a sweet spot, but…
We reckon that Indian equities are in a sweet spot with low institutional ownership (coming off five-year lows), strong liquidity (policy makers are
still reticent to take away stimulus), prospects of growth (watch out for private corporate capex – the trough is likely behind us), earnings upgrade
(indeed, we are at the start of earnings growth cycle), strong corporate balance sheets, and stable politics (implying steady pace of reforms).
 …the pace of gains is likely to slow
Our Dec-2010 target for the Sensex (19,400) suggests upside of 19%, reflecting a slower pace of gains after a stellar performance over the past
six months. Our prognosis is that Indian equities could be volatile in the near term, since a lot of the next six months’ projected growth is already
in the price. We believe that investors should use such volatility to buy Indian shares, since the growth outlook for the next 12-18 months remains
firm and is still not priced into equities. Heightened volatility could make trading a less-rewarding strategy compared to “buy on dips and hold”.
Our bull-case scenario takes the Sensex well past its previous high, whereas our bear case could lead it to test the post-election result close of
May 18.
 Key factors to watch
Key factors that could determine market behavior include government policies (watch out for infrastructure spending), global markets (correlation
with SPX and China is still high), crude oil prices (a sharp spike creates problems, the risks are lower if a crude oil price rise is accompanied by
strong capital flows), long bond yields (reflecting fiscal position), the RBI’s exit policy (and hence liquidity), sentiment indicators (watch market
breadth and momentum, which suggests weak share prices in the offing), equity supply (the market may not tolerate more than US$20-25bn in
the coming year), and valuations (relative valuations have moved above average levels).
 Portfolio position: Continue to prefer cyclicals over defensives
We believe that consumer and infrastructure sectors will drive growth recovery and, hence, market performance. Accordingly, we are overweight
Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Financials, and Energy in our model portfolio. We expect the broad market to outperform the narrow market.

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