摩根斯坦利：日本宏观经济研究报告2009年7月

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Main message: The headline improvement bears out the
kicking off of recovery, but we still question the soundness of
stronger profit targets than our top-down forecasts. While we
foresee support for companies’ relatively upbeat outlook from
upcoming corporate results for Apr-Jun, we expect weak sales
recovery momentum to force firms to revise down their profit
plans further from 2H.
What’s new: The headline rebounded almost as we expected,
while the margin was generally below the market consensus.
With the release of corporate guidance, large enterprises have
revised down to recurring profit -20% for F3/10, but we
continue to question the probability of a V-shaped profit
recovery in 2H. The unprecedentedly sharp cuts in capex plans
for June Tankan look reasonable in light of current operating
rates.
Policy implications: Regarding fiscal policy, we see a strong
likelihood of a new administration formulating a second
supplementary budget for F3/10, regardless of the
post-election political landscape. The key question for
monetary policy is whether the various exceptional measures
set to expire at end-Sep will be maintained until Mar 2010. Our
view is that while CP and corporate bond buying operations will
be suspended due to lack of financial institutes and investors’
need, special operation to facilitate corporate finances will
persist until end-Mar.
Upside risks: The market consensus fears a double dip in 1H
2010 after recovery momentum slows in Jul-Sep. Such
concern could recede with the fiscal policy effect fully kicking in
from Oct in the US, and with added fiscal measures by a new
Japanese administration.
Downside risks: We think prices for corporate goods and
services are set to decline further, putting pressure on sales in
both volume and value terms. Another downside risk relates to
the capex and employment effects of disposal or scrapping of
redundant capacity.

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