摩根斯坦利：亚太宏观经济研究报告2009年10月

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Asia Pacific: AXJ Domestic Demand: Cyclical Story
Intact
Although external demand is gradually improving,
recovery to peak levels is some time away, in our view.
Despite acceleration in domestic demand pushing
production back to pre-crisis levels, we believe strength
in the export recovery will likely determine the pace of
policy reversal.
China: Worried About Inflation? Get Money Right
First
We estimate that the adjusted M2 growth rate is much
lower than that suggested by the high headline M2
growth. Adjusted M2, together with weak export growth,
suggests that the 2000-01 situation – featuring relatively
high money growth but relatively low inflation – is likely
to be repeated in 2010.
India: RBI Takes First Step Towards “Exit”
The RBI, in its quarterly monetary policy review, decided
to leave policy rates unchanged as per the market’s and
our expectations. We maintain our view that the RBI will
lift policy rates by 25 bps in January 2010. By then, we
believe the RBI should have adequate comfort on the
pace of recovery.
India: Lifting Growth Estimates on
Higher-than-Expected IP
Various economic indicators have been surprising on
the upside, confirming that the pace of recovery has
been stronger than our expectations. As a result, we
have revised our F2010 GDP growth forecast to 6.4%
from 5.8% previously.

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关键词：宏观经济研究 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 摩根斯坦 经济研究 宏观经济 研究报告 摩根斯坦利 亚太

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