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1. Retail real estate stocks: a risky bet? 3
Stock-picking for 2009: Underperformance for the sector, bullish on retail real estate 3
Real estate stocks in France: prices held up in Q1 but were not as resistant as in 2008 3
Physical real estate market in 2009: end of tunnel not in sight 4
2. Valuation: opportunities to be seized? 7
Anticipating CF, NAV and dividends trends during the crisis 7
Are discounts justified? 10
3. Business models most likely to weather the crisis 13
Top of the list: Klépierre, Unibail-Rodamco, and Mercialys 13
Is a presence in shopping centres still a key factor in business model resilience? 16
4. Are the shopping centres in the portfolios all equally attractive? 18
Quality of the existing portfolio: generally good, with Klépierre and Unibail-Rodamco leading the field 18
The relationship between the retail outlets and the owner is crucial in terms of optimising rentals
management 19
Is geographic diversification synonymous with mutualisation of risk? 21
What other sources of leverage are there to protect CF and real estate asset values? 22
5. Yes, but what about the financing? 25
A less comfortable financial position for the midcaps than the large caps 25
The debt repayment schedule: a Damocles sword? 28
Disposal plans with different strategic objectives 28
What about the dividend payment risk in 2009? 30
6. Financial data 31
Klépierre 33
Unibail-Rodamco 35
Mercialys 37
Silic 39
Icade 41
Gecina 43
Eurosic 45
Tour Eiffel 47
Züblin Immobilière France 49
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