The Global Payments Landscape: 2009 and
Beyond
KEY POINTS:
n We believe the payment processing industry continues to present investors with
excellent investment opportunities. Despite a number of headwinds including maturation
in the U.S. and key developed economies, heightened legislative and regulatory scrutiny
in certain areas of the industry, and continued consolidation of market participants, all
signs still point to consistent global growth in electronic payment transactions at a rate
exceeding GDP.
n In this report, we project growth rates for U.S. payment transactions including card and
electronic-based payments while examining various growth opportunities in payments
both inside and outside of the U.S. Throughout the report, we highlight key players in
the industry including both public and private companies. In addition, we provide
various industry primers on the mechanics of different areas of payment processing for
those new to the industry.
n In our view, the two most important underlying global industry drivers in payments
today are the ongoing secular shift away from paper-based payment types to card- and
other electronic-based payments and the economic development in key emerging
markets. Together, these two trends should support significant global industry growth
over the coming years, even under subdued economic conditions.
n In the U.S., two of the biggest stories in payments over the past five years have been the
emergence of debit as the payments king and the IPO’s of Visa and MasterCard. The
number of debit transactions recently surpassed credit transactions and we expect debit
volume to surpass credit volume within a few years. The IPO’s of Visa and MasterCard
surely brought more investor attention to the payments space, but the long-term
ramifications of the ownership change in these two organizations has yet to be felt, in
our view.
n With debit now the payments king, the ability to win market share will surely be coveted
by issuers. Historically, consumers’ debit relationships have always been tied to their
checking account providers. With the advent of “decoupled” debit, the rules of the game
may be set to change.
n The traditional lines are blurring in the payments landscape as there are very few large
pure-plays left in any of the payment verticals. Today, one cannot discuss the payment
processing industry without considering the networks, the large banks, the core bank
processors, the money transmitters, the merchant and card issuance processors, newer
entrants including a number of venture-backed companies, emerging prepaid processors,
and of course, the role of merchants, especially large ones that are in a position to drive
payment preferences and consumer adoption.
Please refer to important disclosures and analyst certification on pages 64 - 68 of this report.
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