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For over a year, relative valuations have persuaded us to favour other
banks over SCB, but the stock’s underperformance has narrowed its
premium over peers to attractive levels. SCB now trades at just a 12%
2010E P/E premium to BBL despite earnings ROE 4.6 p.p. higher. We
have long liked SCB the bank. Now we like the stock as well.
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We believe a year-long period of retrenchment and slow growth is
ending. Over the next two-three years, we expect SCB to regain a
leading position in loan growth, and its strength in retail banking
should give it a long-term growth advantage.
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We judge SCB’s asset quality the soundest of the large banks. It has
low exposure to high-risk manufacturing and the sector’s highest
exposure to low-risk mortgages. It has the lowest restructured loan
balance of the big banks. We also rate SCB’s corporate governance the
strongest of the big banks and one of the most robust in corporate
Thailand. SCB has fewer succession concerns and an unusually active
and strong board.
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After outperforming SCB by 11% the past three months, BBL is ripe for
profit-taking. The bank stands out on neither asset quality nor growth,
and its slim P/E discount does not seem compelling. The ongoing turn
in investors’ attentions to earnings likely will not favour the stock.
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At our 12-month target price, SCB would trade at 13x forward P/E,
putting it in the bottom half of the 2006-September 2008 trading range.
At 2.3x, the target P/B would be in the middle of the range.
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