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雷达卡
Table of Contents
The worst seems to be over ............................................................. 4
Macro indicators showing signs of stabilization........................................................................4
Time to get selectively positive?...................................................... 7
Historical analysis hinting at a recovery in 2011........................................................................7
Long-term structural drivers remain intact ................................................................................8
Book to bill and order intake trend remains the key determinant of future sales growth; nearterm
sales outlook remains grim...............................................................................................9
Lowered fixed cost base and further cost-rationalization should be positive for margins in the
medium term ..........................................................................................................................10
Deeper look into main customer industries.................................. 12
Near-term weakness in end industries to continue but slow recovery process shaping up ...12
Non-residential construction (Kone, Cargotec)........................................................................12
Metals and mining (Metso) .....................................................................................................13
Container shipping (Wartsila, Cargotec)..................................................................................14
Power generation (Wartsila)....................................................................................................16
Pulp and Paper (Metso)...........................................................................................................16
Diversified industrials (Konecranes) ........................................................................................16
Expected level of normalized earnings in 2011............................. 18
Cargotec ................................................................................................................................18
Kone.......................................................................................................................................19
Konecranes .............................................................................................................................20
Metso.....................................................................................................................................21
Wartsila ..................................................................................................................................22
Valuation – We think the sector is mis-priced .............................. 24
Sector valuations have recovered markedly from Q109 levels ...............................................30
Cargotec (Buy, TP Euro 15.5) .......................................................... 31
Q2 due on 20 July – Expecting received orders to be down 57% YoY at Euro 440m; key focus
on internal restructuring ..........................................................................................................31
Kone (Hold, TP Euro 21.5) ............................................................... 33
Q2 due on 21 July – Expecting received orders to be down 26% YoY at Euro 810m; key focus
on margins ..............................................................................................................................33
Konecranes (Buy, TP Euro 20)......................................................... 35
Q2 due on 29 July – Expecting received orders to be down 40% YoY at Euro 340m ............35
Metso (Hold, TP Euro 15.5) ............................................................. 37
Q2 due on 24 July – Received orders expected to be down 49% YoY at Euro 890m ............37
Wartsila (Sell, TP Euro 18.5) ........................................................... 39
Q2 due on 22 July – Received orders expected to be down c. 40% YoY at Euro 860m; Sell
into current strength ...............................................................................................................39
Valuation and risks.......................................................................... 41
Cargotec, Buy, TP Euro 15.5 ...................................................................................................41
Kone, Hold, TP Euro 21.5 ........................................................................................................41
Konecranes, Buy, TP Euro 20..................................................................................................42
Metso, Hold, TP Euro 15.5......................................................................................................42
Wartsila, Sell, TP Euro 18.5.....................................................................................................42
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