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2 Investment summary
3 Strategic Asset Allocation – 1-year outlook
Editorial
6 Moving back to pre Lehman bankruptcy levels. Then, what?
7 Slow recovery
8 Quantitative easing on the rise
10 If you fear a bond market crash, you fight the Fed. We don’t
11 Corporate Bonds still attractive, even more so in the US than Europe
12 Among the G3 currencies, the Yen should be the weakest
14 Commodities: use potential weakness in 2009 Q3 to continue re-weighting
15 Alternatives investments: long equities with lower volatility
16 Equity markets need to take a breather – for now (1)
17 Equity markets need to take a breather – for now (2)
18 High equity issuance levels: dilutive effects more than counterbalanced by a fall in the equity premium
19 Inflows into equities should normalise
21 Despite rising bond yields, equity risk premiums remain high (attractive equities)
22 Deep discount makes small caps more attractive
23 Upgrade of European Property stocks to Neutral
Economic scenario
26 Global economic outlook
26 The shape of things to come
27 USA: back from the brink
27 The US consumption recovery is expected to be the weakest on record
27 China: saving itself, but not the world
28 Inflation. Deflation in the short term but medium-term risks
28 Conclusion
Result of the Tactical Asset Allocation model
30 Asset allocation model – Major conclusions
31 Backtest and recent performance
32 Efficient frontier and our three portfolio profiles (€)
33 Efficient frontier (
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