法国兴业银行：欧洲证券市场投资策略2009年1月

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We are just starting the 2008 reporting season and now getting new 2009 guidance. No one
expects good newsflow, but we believe it will be terrible. We estimate that markets will get
worse before they get better. For most sectors, an index drop in excess of 10 percent would
bring valuation to all-time lows. We advise to keep a rather defensive sector strategy.
While cyclicality and earnings momentum remain key variables to build an allocation, we are
also sensitive to (fast falling) commodity prices, balance sheet potential goodwill write-offs
(e.g. for banks) after M&A, a high volatility regime and valuation.
We recommend Underweight on Banks, which are burdened by rising cost of risk and
growing risk of government intervention. Overweight Consumer staples (Food,
Pharmaceuticals). We continue to prefer Insurance to Banks.
Stay away from Industry and Commodity related sectors, as capex and emerging market
exposure are sources of disappointment.
Within defensives, prefer Telecoms to Utilities.

Asset allocation by sector
MSCI Weighting Comments
%
Oil & Gas 11.9 Underweight Trading at 35-year high vs the market. Relative valuation at new high
Integrated Oil Companies 11.4 Underweight Trading at 35-year high vs the market. Relative valuation at new high
Oil Services 0.5 Underweight
Basic Industries 6.8 Underweight Valuation not yet undervalued, despite risk of profit warning given the commodity
price normalization.
Chemicals 2.6 Underweight Cyclically exposed. Prefer agrochemicals and industrial gases to bulk producers
Construction Materials 0.8 Underweight More bad news to come especially on the housing markets.
Steel, Metals & Mining 3.0 Underweight Some risk of disappointment during the reporting season due to commodities
price normalization and goodwill depreciation
Paper, Packaging 0.3 Underweight
Industry 9.5 Underweight Bleak prospects for this cyclically exposed sector
Aerospace & Defence 1.0 Neutral Marked deterioration for civil aviation but defence spending still growing
Construction 1.5 Underweight More bad news to come especially on the housing markets. The highest net
debt/shareholder’s equity ratio in the market.
Capital Goods 4.9 Underweight Capex hit by credit crisis and slowing global economy
Transportation & Other services 2.1 Neutral Heterogeneous sector: concentrate on mail and airports, the less cyclical parts
Consumer Discretionary 7.8 Overweight Some parts already price in a very nasty scenario
Automobiles & Components 2.4 Neutral Deep value, but need of trigger to recover such as auto-credit availability
Durables, Apparel & Luxury 1.2 Neutral 􀃐 Diminished appetite for luxury but cut in production capacity is no real option
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 0.9 Neutral Already negative 2008 & 2009 EPS growth expectations, but cyclicality of the
sector should weigh on growth.
Media 2.3 Overweight “Defensive” end weight 60% of the sector. One of the highest yields of the
market.
Retailing (specialised) 1.0 Overweight Reasonable valuation. 2008 & 2009 earnings expectations already negative.
Should benefit from interest rate falls throughout the world.
Consumer Staples 12.1 Overweight Attractive relative to the market as the macro economic data has not yet
bottomed out
Food & Staples Retailing 2.3 Overweight Relatively attractive during recession. Valuations not yet excessive. One of the
worst hit during the last bull market: still room to outperform.
Beverages 1.7 Neutral Good Momentum. Defensive but weak balance sheets (high gearing)
Food 5.4 Overweight Defensive sector. Benefit from the high risk-aversion.
Tobacco 1.6 Neutral
Household & Personal Care 1.1 Overweight Financially sound; relief from lower raw material prices; low beta
Health Care 11.7 Overweight Largely unaffected by the dire economic situation; financially strong
Financials 20.9 Underweight 􀃐 Prefer insurers to banks
Banks - Continental Europe 7.2 Underweight 􀃐 Rising cost of risk and growing risk of government intervention
Banks - UK 3.7 Underweight 􀃐 Rising cost of risk and growing risk of government intervention
Div. Financials & Investment Banks 3.6 Underweight 􀃐 Rising cost of risk and growing risk of government intervention
Insurance 5.7 Overweight Much stronger balance sheets than banks. Historically low valuation. Equity
exposure significantly reduced (lowering beta).
Real Estate 0.7 Neutral High and reliable dividend yield. Favor continental Europe over UK.
Information Technology 3.0 Underweight 􀃐 Globally under pressure due to capex cut equipment and software
Software 0.7 Neutral Benefit from higher risk-aversion versus emerging based competitors
IT Services & ISPs 0.2 Neutral Benefit from higher risk-aversion versus emerging based competitors
Technology Hardware & Eqpt. 1.8 Underweight 􀃐 Mobile handset sales could drop by 9% in 2009. Fixed infrastructure expected to
decline further
Semi-conductors 0.3 Underweight 􀃐 Newsflow incredibly negative
Telecommunication Services 8.2 Overweight 􀃏 Relatively defensive. Prefer fixed segments to mobile
Utilities 8.1 Underweight Relative valuation at all time high. Yield below than that of market. Vulnerable to
goodwill write-offs after an impressive global M&A cycle

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