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雷达卡
A pyramid market. We forecast China’s online game market will grow
37% YoY in 2009 and 32% YoY in 2010. In the three-tier China online game
market, we rate Perfect World, Changyou and Tencent as OUTPERFORM,
with Perfect World and Changyou the top picks of the sector.
■ CS ways to choose right game companies. Different from the market view,
we prefer using ACU for long-term revenue forecasts, instead of APA/ARPU.
In order to achieve sustainable game portfolio growth, we recommend
investors choose game companies that focus on: 1) high quality
management; 2) top online games in the portfolio (mainly in terms of ACU);
3) sustainable game pipeline; 4) developing a diversified portfolio; and 5) the
right mix of self-development and licensing games.
■ Game league table 2.0 launched. After the success of the Credit Suisse
China Online Game League Table 1.0, we launch the second generation of
Credit Suisse China Online Game League Table to improve tracking
accuracy. Game League Table 2.0 includes three game data sources:
1) Baidu’s online game index; 2) the BarChina click rate table; 3) the 17173
software downloading chart. Both Baidu and BarChina are primary data
sources.
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