发帖
雷达卡
Game/pachinko & pachislo
machine sector
INITIATION
Alpha strategy: accumulate on announcement
of blockbuster titles, underweight on release
■􀀁 We initiate coverage of the game/pachinko & pachislo machine sector with a
MARKET WEIGHT stance and on six companies. Below, are our ratings for each
firm:
Konami (9766): OUTPERFORM, TP ¥2,200 (20.48% potential upside)
Capcom (9697): OUTPERFORM, TP ¥2,200 (32.61%)
Sega Sammy Holdings (6460): UNDERPERFORM, TP ¥900 (-28.17%)
SANKYO (6417): NEUTRAL, TP ¥5,100 (0.99%)
Square Enix Holdings (9684): NEUTRAL, TP ¥1,900 (-10.59%)
Namco Bandai Holdings (7832): NEUTRAL, TP ¥1,100 (3.38%)
■􀀁 Accumulate on announcement of blockbuster titles, reduce holdings on
release: Interest in the game sector tends to wane in tandem with a lack of
hardware on the horizon slated for launch. Accordingly, until there are indications
of the launch of next-generation game consoles, sector valuations are unlikely to
rise against the market. Contrary to sector trends, profits for individual
companies are expected to grow ahead of the launch of blockbuster software
titles. We thus favor an alpha strategy that targets individual stock picks, taking
as its cue “accumulate on announcement of blockbuster title and reduce holdings
on release”.
■􀀁 Favor long positions for Konami and Capcom following announcement of
blockbuster titles: Game software stocks look attractive, in our view, when they
have announced blockbuster software titles, but the earnings contribution from
these titles has yet to be priced in. We believe this currently applies to Konami
and Capcom.
■􀀁 September Tokyo Game Show a catalyst for Konami and Capcom shares:
Details of blockbuster games tend to be announced at game shows. Since Konami
and Capcom are likely to use the Tokyo Game Show (TGS) as a platform to
announce launch schedules, the equity market is likely to begin pricing in future
earnings contributions from these blockbuster titles after the show.
■􀀁 Square Enix’s high share price likely to soften since its blockbuster title
was released: Square Enix’s share price outperformed the market in the few
months prior to Dragon Quest IX’s (DQ9) release. As a result, the shares
currently look overvalued, trading at an FY3/10E P/E of 16.7x, especially
compared to Capcom’s P/E of 10.6x. Square Enix’s share price is therefore likely
to soften since DQ9 was released on 11 July and all of the good news appears
to be out.
■􀀁 Potential pair trades between Konami/Capcom (undervalued) and Square
Enix (overvalued): As timing is key to investing in game stocks, this creates
opportunities to pair trade stocks that have announced blockbuster titles
(undervalued) with those that have released (overvalued) titles. We anticipate
pair-trade opportunities between Konami/Capcom (appear undervalued having
announced blockbuster titles) and Square Enix (appears overvalued following
release of DQ9) due to the adjustment of share price difference likely to ensue.
■􀀁 Risks: Delayed release of blockbusters titles, recovery timing of the amusement
arcade market, changes in pachinko/pachislo regulation, and forex rates.
Table of contents
Valuation, price, consensus details 3
Alpha strategy: accumulate on announcement of blockbuster titles, reduce on
release 6
Risks 11
Four key characteristics of game software shares 12
Valuation 15
Apply P/E and P/B to calculate TPs 16
Prospects for the game software market 20
Market overview 21
Download access likely to be focus of next-generation consoles 25
Expansion of overseas sales channels needed to sustain software earnings growth 26
New uses for content should increase revenue opportunities 29
Prospects for the pachinko/pachislo market 30
Market overview 31
Needs to be price cuts or shakeout among machine makers 39
Individual companies
Konami (9766 / 9766 JP) 43
Capcom (9697 / 9697 JP) 59
Sega Sammy Holdings (6460 / 6460 JP) 73
Sankyo (6417 / 6417 JP) 86
Square Enix Holdings (9684 / 9684 JP) 95
Namco Bandai Holdings (7832 / 7832 JP) 111
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
