摩根斯坦利：美国证券市场投资策略报告2009年9月(免费)

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Overview
The Month At A Glance…………………………………………......6
Data Recap………………………………………………………......7
Performance Recap………………………………………………….8
Key Themes & Developments
2Q09 Earnings – Better Than Expected …..……………………..10
2Q09 Earnings – It’s still a Margin Story………………………….11
Earnings Revision – Upgrades Continue....................................12
Earnings Estimates – No Stopping Consensus Estimates……..13
Non-Financial Earnings Remain Elevated………………………..14
Starting Point Was Very Expensive……………………………….15
Earnings Drove the 2004-07 Bull Market…………………….......16
The Cost of Getting Timing Wrong………………………………..17
Breadth – Back to Bull Market Levels ……………………………18
Equities vs. Fed Funds Changes………………………………….19
Performance – Sector Rotation Underway…………………........20
Seasonality – A Quiet Period………………………………….......21
QE Measures Continue To Work………………………………….22
Credit Market – Back to Levels Before Lehman Failure……......23
Energy – Still Defying Fundamentals.………………...................24
Commodities – Sugar & Metals Leading The Charge…….........25
Macro Indicator Watch
Growth Watch – Green Shoots Emerging………….…………….27
Growth Watch – Indicators Significantly Off Troughs………......28
Macro Data – Still Signs of Weakness……………………………29
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Response……………………………..30
Inflation to Remain Low………………………………………………31
US Housing – A Bottom or Head Fake?.......................................32
US Housing – Delinquencies Decline, but a Blip?........................33
Equity Market Performance & Outlook
S&P 500 Total Return By Industry Group……………..…………..35
What’s Working? Low Quality, Low ROE………………………….36
Emerging Markets Outperforming YTD…………………………….37
Developed Markets Outperformed This Month……………………38
Improvement Continues……………………………..………………39
Domestic Cyclicals Outperformed Global Cyclicals in August.....40
Large Caps Edge Ahead This Month….…………….……………..41
Growth Outperforming Value YTD……………………………........42
Valuations Remain in Neutral Territory……………………...……..43
Valuation Dispersion Has Fallen Significantly……………………..44
Multiple Expansion in Low Quality Stocks Drove Rally…………..45
Sentiment Improving On Most Counts.………………………….....46
Sentiment Neither Bullish Nor Bearish……………………………..47
Sector Rotation: Still Weak Signals…………………………………48
Cash Positions Declining………………………………………........49
Recent US Strategy Research………………………………………50
Table of Contents
We acknowledge the contributions of Bijit Maji, Dipojjal
Saha, Ankush Agrawal and Aishorjyo Ghosh in
compiling this report

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