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Asia forecast to drive global growth despite China slowdown
Rising external demand and commodity prices will boost expansion, says ADB
US investment in the Philippines falls sharply Premium
YESTERDAY by: Michael Peel in Bangkok
Asian economies will drive global growth this year as rising external demand and commodity prices help counter a gradual slowdown in China, according to the Asian Development Bank.
In its annual outlook published on Thursday, the multilateral lender said Asia excluding Japan would deliver 60 per cent of worldwide economic expansion as the region’s less industrialised economies halt several years of slowdown.
The bank’s research shows growth picking up in two-thirds of Asian countries, countering a slide in mainland China’s expansion from 6.7 per cent in 2016 to 6.2 per cent next year. Growth across the region will far outstrip the collective annual figure of 1.9 per cent for the US, Japan and the euro area in 2017 and 2018, the bank predicts.
“Developing Asia continues to drive the global economy even as the region adjusts to a more consumption-driven economy in the People’s Republic of China, and looming global risks,” said Yasuyuki Sawada, the ADB’s chief economist. “While uncertain policy changes in advanced economies do pose a risk to the outlook, we feel that most economies are well positioned to weather potential short-term shocks.”
Domestic reforms and a recovery in global food and fuel prices will help Asia’s less industrialised economies match last year’s average expansion of 6.3 per cent, the ADB forecasts. China’s downward trend will pull overall growth for the region excluding Japan down a little to 5.7 per cent this year, compared with 5.8 per cent last year and 6.5 per cent in 2013.
South Asia is forecast to drive expansion in the wider region, notching a 7 per cent rise this year thanks mainly to a 7.4 per cent climb in India. Southeast Asia is predicted to average 4.8 per cent overall, with growth above 6 per cent in the Philippines and Vietnam offset by a 3.5 per cent figure for Thailand, the region’s second-largest economy. Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s most populous country by far, is forecast to notch 5.1 per cent growth this year and 5.3 per cent next.
External risks for Asia flagged by the ADB include capital being sucked from the region by US interest rate rises, although the bank expects the process to be gradual rather than a sudden shock. Inflation is forecast to tick up from 2.5 per cent in 2016 to 3 per cent this year and 3.2 per cent in 2018 — still below the 10-year regional average of 3.9 per cent.
A main domestic hazard is rising household debt in some countries, which the ADB says may require countries to enforce tighter rules on how much people are allowed to borrow as a proportion of what they earn. Authorities may also have to “intervene more decisively in housing markets to cool speculative demand and head off asset bubbles”, the bank adds.
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