德意志银行：澳大利亚LNG行业研究报告2009年9月

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Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
The Elephant in the Room.........................................................................................................3
Australasian projects: who is at risk? ........................................................................................3
Investment implications ............................................................................................................5
Valuation and Risks ...................................................................................................................6
The Pacific Basin LNG market .......................................................... 7
Current buyers and sellers ........................................................................................................7
Contrasting the Atlantic Basin position .....................................................................................9
Future Pacific Basin supply shortfall .......................................................................................10
Qatar LNG projects.......................................................................... 13
Overview................................................................................................................................13
Reserves position – almost infinite .........................................................................................14
Current projects ......................................................................................................................16
Qatargas ................................................................................................................................19
Qatargas-2..............................................................................................................................19
Qatargas-3..............................................................................................................................19
Qatargas-4..............................................................................................................................20
RasGas...................................................................................................................................20
RasGas II................................................................................................................................20
RL3.........................................................................................................................................21
Current marketing strategies...................................................................................................21
A shifting marketing focus? ....................................................................................................23
Construction moratorium ........................................................................................................23
The possible implications for Australian projects ........................ 24
How could Qatar impact Australian projects?.........................................................................24
Which projects are at risk?......................................................................................................27
Australia’s proposed LNG projects ................................................ 31
PNG LNG ...............................................................................................................................32
Gorgon ...................................................................................................................................32
QCLNG...................................................................................................................................33
GLNG .....................................................................................................................................33
APLNG ...................................................................................................................................33
Pluto-2....................................................................................................................................34
Ichthys ...................................................................................................................................34
Fisherman’s Landing LNG.......................................................................................................34
Sunrise ...................................................................................................................................35
Wheatstone ............................................................................................................................35
Browse...................................................................................................................................35
Company overviews........................................................................ 36
Origin Energy (ORG.AX, Buy, PT $21.50/sh) ...........................................................................36
Santos (STO.AX, Buy, PT $20.65/sh).......................................................................................38
Oil Search (OSH.AX, Buy, PT $7.00/sh)...................................................................................40
Woodside Petroleum (WPL.AX, Hold, PT $45.60/sh)..............................................................42
Arrow Energy (AOE.AX, Hold, PT $3.55/sh) ............................................................................44
Appendix A: Glossary...................................................................... 46
Appendix B: LNG 101 ...................................................................... 47

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