德意志银行--日本传媒行业研究报告2007年7月

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We think the evolution toward next-generation media will start from mid-CY07. We expect
the drivers of this new market to include PC and TV video-on-demand (VOD), next-generation
DVDs, and content distribution to mobile handsets. We think media evolution will restart the
cycle of earnings growth in the content industry in CY08.
1-3. Industry on the brink of a medium-term revaluation cycle,
and we are Bullish
The share prices of the leading content industry companies remain strong through the CY00
IT bubble, as well as the period of media evolution spanning CY00-CY05. Until early CY06, the
equities market granted the leading content stocks valuations premised on consistent
upward growth. However, earnings leveled off in FY06 and FY07, making a share price
correction inevitable.
We think next-generation media evolution will begin in 2H CY07, and that a medium-term
earnings expansion cycle will resume in FY08. Accordingly, we think industry stocks will be
revalued starting in 2H FY07. We think the catalysts will be the build-out of the nextgeneration
media environment and events promoting this next-generation media environment.
The build-out of the next-generation media environment will involve: 1) in on the media
terminal side, digital TV, next-generation recording and playback devices, and the spread of
mobile phone handsets; and 2) on the network side, next-generation fixed-communications
networks, mobile phone networks, and the shifting of cable TV to digital. Events promoting
this next-generation media environment will include the Beijing Olympics and the
augmentation of digital terrestrial broadcast services.
The stocks of the leading content companies tend to be awarded higher valuations than the
market average in periods of media evolution and earnings expansion. In our view, this is
because of these companies’ high leverage and the sensitivity of their earnings to media
evolution. Taking into account these companies’ low present valuations, the momentum
toward a turnaround in earnings trends and a medium-term earnings expansion, and the
abundance of catalysts, we are Bullish on the content sector.
1-4. Stock selection and investment opinion
As Figure 2 shows, our ratings are 1) Buy for Toho (9602), Toei (9605), Toei Animation (4816),
and Yoshimoto Kogyo (9665); 2) Hold for Avex Group Holdings (7860) and Kadokawa Group
Holdings (9447); and 3) Sell for Shochiku (9601).
Our Buys are all companies that focus on film and video and have strong bases for
generating economic value from their content. We think the evolution of next-generation
media will principally drive the film and video market. In the film and video field, those
companies with strong bases for generating economic value from content can expect media
evolution to present growth opportunities. During the CY00-CY05 period, these companies
saw their profits grow substantially, primarily because they benefited from the expansion of
the DVD market.
Note that Toho and Toei have real estate operations on a par with their film and video
operations. In both companies’ cases, film and video operations are benefiting from media
evolution, and real estate operations are benefiting from recovering market prices. Hence, in
both cases the companies overall are enjoying a tailwind. In this report, we conduct separate
valuation analyses for the film and video operations and real estate operations of the three
movie companies, and based on this calculate their theoretical shareholder values.

1. Investment Opinion
1-1. Definition of “content industry” and companies covered in
this report
In this report, we define the “content industry” as the group of companies whose primary
business involves creating economic value from content, as well as holding and utilizing
content rights. Content fields include film and video, music, and print.
We note that the key terrestrial broadcasters are the biggest content holders. However, the
terrestrial TV business is undergoing a revolution related to digital terrestrial broadcasting and
the linking of broadcast and Internet content, and because of the major impact these changes
are having on the industry itself, we will not include these companies in the scope of this
report.
The economic value of content is generated by three indispensable capabilities. These are: 1)
distribution and promotion capabilities in primary media, 2) other promotion capabilities, and
3) creative capabilities. The degree to which companies contribute to the process of creating
economic value largely reflects their share of content rights.
The main rights holders in each of these content fields are as follows. In theatrical film, they
are the three movie companies, the key terrestrial broadcasters, and advertising companies.
In TV programming, they are the key terrestrial broadcasters, artist management companies,
and production companies. In animation, they are production companies, key terrestrial
broadcasters, and advertising companies. In music, they are record companies and artist
management companies. In print (books and magazines), they are publishers.
We cover the following seven companies in this report: Shochiku, Toho, Toei (all three movie
companies), Toei Animation (an animation production company), Yoshimoto Kogyo (primarily
an artist management and TV programming production company), Avex Group Holdings
(primarily a music company), and Kadokawa Group Holdings (primarily a publisher).
1-2. Next-generation media evolution restarting the earnings
growth cycle
As Figure 1 shows, the content industry benefited from media evolution over the CY00-CY05
period. During this time, the media driving the content market included DVDs, online
distribution (primarily PC and mobile distribution), and cinema complexes, along with
overseas development.
The expansion of the content market led to a cycle of expansion by inducing the major
content providers to increase inputs of management resources (i.e., spending on content
creation and promotion), which in turn further stimulated the content market. The content
market expanded as it polarized, and earnings at the leading content providers grew rapidly.
Going into CY06, media evolution started to slow on the whole, and earnings at the leading
content providers reached a plateau in FY06 and FY07. The saturation of the DVD market has
had a particularly strong impact on the film and video market. Although the PC and mobile
Internet distribution market is growing, it is still a period of transition toward the nextgeneration
infrastructure, so content distribution by the leading listed firms has not yet begun
on a full scale.

Our Holds are Avex Group Holdings and Kadokawa Group Holdings. Both companies focus
on music and publishing. In both of these fields, companies are highly dependent on the
primary distribution market as an earnings source, so we think the two companies are at risk
of declines in earnings-generation capability.
Our Sell is Shochiku. Like Toho and Toei, Shochiku is a leader in video content and has a real
estate business. We rate Shochiku a Sell because its market cap exceeds the theoretical
shareholder value resulting from the aforementioned analysis.

Table of Contents
1. Investment Opinion....................................................................... 4
1-1. Definition of “content industry” and companies covered in this report.............................4
1-2. Next-generation media evolution restarting the earnings growth cycle .............................4
1-3. Industry on the brink of a medium-term revaluation cycle, and we are Bullish ..................5
1-4. Stock selection and investment opinion ............................................................................5
2. Content business: creation of economic value, and the process
of deciding who owns rights............................................................ 8
2-1. Types of media, and the creation and realization of economic value in the content industry 8
2-2. Types of content, types of media, and the scale of the market .........................................9
2-3. Decision-making mechanisms for content rights holders ................................................10
2-4. Virtuous circle: cross-promotion of media and content....................................................11
3. Content rights holders and profit structures ............................ 13
3-1. Two ways to use content rights.......................................................................................13
3-2. Revenue structure of primary media companies and other rights-holders ......................13
3-3. Media phenomena and the rational behavior of rights holders ........................................14
4. Rise of new media and affect on rights holder earnings ......... 16
4-1. Rise of new media does not affect all rights holders equally...........................................16
4-2. Positive and negative effects on different rights holders.................................................16
4-3. Experience with new media in different content fields....................................................17
4-4. Business that can expand earnings through media development....................................18
5. Content market and online distribution: trends and analysis . 19
5-1. Content market trends .....................................................................................................19
5-2. Internet is a powerful media for attractive content ..........................................................20
5-3. Current online distribution market: lack of popular content .............................................20
5-4. Rights holders prevent online distribution due to lack of economic rationale ..................21
6. Against a backdrop of media progress, leading visual content
copyright holders have strong advantage...................................... 22
6-1. Leading companies in each contents field .......................................................................22
6-2 Advances in digital technology will have major impact on visual content.........................23
6-3 Leading visual content copyright holders have great capacity to adapt to media
environment changes..............................................................................................................23
6-4. Strength of media and contents cycle is key ...................................................................24
7. Impact of VOD and next-generation DVD on visual content
market............................................................................................... 25
7-1 Penetration of digital TV and NGN to trigger further expansion of visual content market.25
7-2 VOD market worth ¥150bn in 2006 ..................................................................................26
7-3 Current topics and future solutions for VOD.....................................................................26
7-4 Level of expectation for VOD and next-generation DVD market expansion......................27
7-5 US VOD market trends......................................................................................................28
8. VOD: Copyright holders' rational handling of distribution...... 30
8-1. A rational approach by copyright holders to secondary-use media distribution...............30
8.2 Copyright holders' response to distributors with sub-optimal window setup...................30
8-3. Distributors with sub-optimal window setups suffer weak earnings ...............................31
8-4. For healthy development of the market ...........................................................................32
Companies
Shochiku ................................................................................................................................34
Toho.......................................................................................................................................39
Toei ........................................................................................................................................46
Appendix: 3 movie companies distribution titles ...............................................................52
Toei Animation ........................................................................................................................60
Avex Group Holdings ..............................................................................................................68
Kadokawa Group Holdings......................................................................................................75
Yoshimoto Kogyo....................................................................................................................83

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