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UBS Evidence Lab Macro estimates are driven from big data
Our final data for April economic activities in China reiterates a broad growth slowdown relative to March and Q1, among most indicators we track. Our new data suggests lower consumption growth in April relative to March, along with weaker industrial production, auto sales and property investments. Property sales growth remains similar to March but weaker relative to Q1. Overall, our activity index shows softening in April, implying lower growth in Q2 than Q1. This analysis from UBS Evidence Lab Macro team uses high-frequency data gathered bottom-up from different segments of the economy.
Our estimates are independent of UBS China Economics forecasts
UBS Evidence Lab Macro uses real-time big data to assess Chinese economic activities independently of the official UBS China Economics team estimates. UBS China Economics team also expects April’s data release to show slightly softer growth momentum, with weaker industrial production growth, slower property sales, steady monthly nominal FAI, softer overall credit growth to the real economy, cooler export growth, and a higher headline FX reserves increase.
20170508-UBS-China Economy：Broad Slowdown Observed in April.pdf
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