摩根斯坦利：日本保险行业研究报告2009年9月

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Investment thesis for life insurers: Capital regulation,
accounting, and calculation of embedded value (EV) is
moving towards a common standard founded on an
economic-value-based concept of capital. It will take
time for this understanding of capital and share price
formation based on term profits to become established.
However, if we assume stabilization of the stock market
and long-term interest rates in the adjustment phase, we
think these changes could provide near-term stock
catalysts. Further ahead, looking at the potential for
multiples to rise as share prices reflect growth potential
measured by economic value over the medium term, we
think life insurers offer much greater upside potential
than other financial sub-industries. Reappraisal of that
value for equity still implies large upside for T&D.
SFH is disclosing EV on a very conservative calculation,
so downside risk for EV is unlikely to surprise. From this
angle, we view the stock as a defensive play on
(downward) TOPIX volatility
EV and share prices: We think the market for now will
continue to see EV (P/EV or P/NAV of 1x) as the core
reference for fair value. In this report, we reassess
exactly what risks the market is pricing in on an EV basis.
Multiples to date have tended to converge on 1x towards
FY-end as variables become less uncertain. For T&D,
we see upside potential as the market becomes better
able to forecast the level of FY-end EV, or as information
disclosure enables the market to apply a reduced
discount relative to the NAV outlook.

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