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Golden decade ahead for LED TV & LED lighting
􀂄 LED TV market to take off in 2010-11
We forecast strong growth momentum in the LED TV and LED Monitor segments in 2010-11,
where the cost differential between LED and cold cathode fluorescent lamp (CCFL), the
mainstream backlight for LCD TV, has shrunk to US$100-150, and the LED-CCFL cost
differential has also narrowed to US$5-10 in the monitor segment. We believe the retail
price of LED TV and LED Monitor has considerably more downside .
􀂄 LED lighting to be adopted at a slower rate than LED TV & LED monitor
Market research institutions estimate LED costs will drop to US$2 per thousand lumens by
2015, similar to the current cost of fluorescent light. We expect LED will be an important
source of lighting by that time. This means the growth potential of LED lighting is huge, as at
present LED accounts for only 0.5% of the global lighting market of estimated US$122bn in
2009. However, we expect the penetration of LED lighting to increase at a slower rate than
LED TV and LED monitor, as LED light costs are far higher than traditional light.
􀂄 Taiwanese LED makers to cash in with new applications
In recent years, in a bid to capitalize on the huge business opportunity, Taiwanese LED
companies have been active in developing new applications such as LED NB and LED TV. LED
NB makers include Light House, Lite-On, and Epistar TV and monitor makers that have
shipped small volumes of LED models include Epistar, Formosa Epitaxy, and Gia Tzoong
Companies that have developed LED lighting include Epistar, Everlight, and Macroblock
􀂄 We recommend accumulating LED stocks
LED shares have been in correction mode for over three months since peaking on May 26,
with some coming down as much as 30%. In 3Q09, we forecast LED sector sales growth of
15-20%. The outlook for 2010 is also good, with the LED TV and LED monitor segments
poised to take off, with growth likely to match that of LED NB. We upgraded the LED sector
at the end of August. Our respective 12M target prices for top picks Epistar, Everlight,
Macroblock and TSMT are NT$119(upside+25%), NT$116(+16%), NT$159(+30.3%) and
NT$89(+20.8%).
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