摩根斯坦利：印度水泥行业研究报告2009年9月

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Contents
Investment Case 3
Valuation 10
Where We Differ 12
Medium-term Demand Outlook Remains Upbeat 14
Capacity Increase to Beget Calm, Not Catastrophe 18
Regional Analysis: North Looks Attractive on Relative Basis 22
Cost: Benign Near Term; Cautious Medium Term 24
Government Intervention Unlikely in the Near Term 29
Company Analysis 30
Ultratech Cement: Financial Summary 32
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Ultratech Ltd (ULTC.BO, Rs730, OW, PT Rs915)
33
UTT: Risk-Reward Assessment 39
ACC: Financial Summary 42
Risk-Reward Snapshot: ACC Ltd (ACC.BO, Rs767, EW, PT Rs825) 43
ACC: Valuation 47
Risk-Reward Assessment 49
Earnings Outlook 50
Ambuja: Financial Summary 52
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Ambuja (ABUJ.BO, Rs96.95, EW, PT Rs97) 53
Ambuja: Valuation 57
Ambuja: Risk-Reward Assessment 59
Ambuja: Earnings Outlook 60
Grasim: Financial Summary 62
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Grasim (GRAS.BO, Rs2,921, EW, PT Rs2921) 63
Grasim: Valuation 68
Grasim: Risk-Reward Assessment 70
Grasim: Earnings Outlook 71

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