摩根斯坦利：澳门博彩行业研究报告2009年10月

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Contents.......................................................................................................................................................................... 2
Investment Case............................................................................................................................................................. 4
We Remain Constructive on the Sector for a Number of Reasons ......................................................................................................4
Beware of Speed Bumps:....................................................................................................................................................................6
Valuation: Re-rating Possible ....................................................................................................................................... 7
Theme #1: Forecasting Gaming Revenue..................................................................................................................... 9
Theme #2: Supply/Demand Situation Improving ....................................................................................................... 10
Theme #3: Commission Cap to Drive Margins Up..................................................................................................... 11
Theme #4: Cost Control in 1H09 and 3Q09 MPEL/Galaxy Preview.......................................................................... 12
SJM Holdings (0880.HK, HK$4.53, OW, PT HK$5.60) ................................................................................................ 13
Investment Thesis: Initiate at Overweight..........................................................................................................................................13
Upside Could Come from the Following:............................................................................................................................................................... 13
Our Concerns ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 13
Galaxy Entertainment (0027.HK, HK$3.53, OW, PT HK$4.40) ................................................................................... 16
Investment Thesis: Raising PT to HK$4.40.......................................................................................................................................16
Our concerns remain as follows: ........................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Price Target and Risk Discussion .....................................................................................................................................................17
Earnings Revision ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Melco International (0200.HK, HK$5.12, OW, PT HK$6.10) ....................................................................................... 19
Investment Thesis: Upgrade to Overweight ......................................................................................................................................19
Upside Could Come from the Following................................................................................................................................................................ 19
Concerns Remain.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Price Target and Risk Discussion .....................................................................................................................................................20
Earnings Revision ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (MPEL.O, US$7.03, EW, PT US$7.20)............................................................ 22
Investment Thesis: Raising PT to US$7.20.......................................................................................................................................22
Upside Could Come From the Following:.............................................................................................................................................................. 22
Our Concerns ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 22
Price Target and Risk Discussion .....................................................................................................................................................23
Earnings Revision ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Shun Tak (0242.HK, HK$5.83, EW, PT HK$6.00) ........................................................................................................ 25
Investment Thesis: Raising PT to HK$6.0.........................................................................................................................................25
Investment Positives ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Limited Upside....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Price Target and Risk Discussion .....................................................................................................................................................29
Earnings Revisions................................................................................................................................................................................................ 29
Macau Residential Property Fundamentals Stablized............................................................................................... 31
Risk-Reward Analysis and Financial Summaries ......................................................................................................33
Risk-Reward Snapshot: SJM ...................................................................................................................................... 34
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Galaxy Entertainment.......................................................................................................... 35
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Melco Int’l ............................................................................................................................. 36
Risk-Reward Snapshot: MPEL.................................................................................................................................... 37
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Shun Tak.............................................................................................................................. 38
SJM: Financial Summary............................................................................................................................................. 39
Galaxy Entertainment: Financial Summary................................................................................................................ 40
Melco International: Financial Summary .................................................................................................................... 41
MPEL: Financial Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 42
Shun Tak: Financial Summary.................................................................................................................................... 43

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