大摩Morgan Stanley Global Macro Mid-Year Outlook 37页 - 行业分析报告

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sunshinechen 发表于 2017-6-13 15:37:30 |AI写论文

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4 Transitioning to self-sustaining growthM10 Key forecast profile11 Exploring the bull and bear cases14 US: Aging gracefully15 Euro area: At cruising speed16 Japan: Solid growth to continue in 2017-1817 UK: May's majority for Brexit Britain18 Australia: The consumption crunch19 China: Growth moderation amid more prudentdebt management20 India: Entering a productive growth phase21 Indonesia: From restoring macro stability torestoring growth and structural rebalancing22 Korea: Export recovery provides growth safetycushion for difficult structural reforms23 Russia: Recovery gaining momentum24 Turkey: Entering a period of unorthodox fiscalpolicy25 Brazil: Uncertainty looms26 Mexico: Rising external clarity, mounting domesticuncertainty27 GDP forecasts: Base, bear, bull scenarios28 CPI forecasts: Base, bear, bull scenarios29 Monetary policy rate forecasts30 Government budget balance and debt forecasts31 Consumer expenditure and investment spendingforecasts32 Government bond yield/spread forecasts33 Global currency forecasts34 Global economics team