摩根斯坦利：美国寿险行业研究报告2009年9月(免费)

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Life Insurance/Annuities Nigel Dally (212-761-4132)
US Life Insurance
Nigel.Dally@morganstanley.com
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict
of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor
in making their investment decision. Customers of Morgan
Stanley in the U.S. can receive independent, third-party
research on the company covered in this report, at no cost
to them, where such research is available. Customers can
access this independent research at
www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can call 1-800-
624-2063 to request a copy of this research.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
refer to the Disclosure Section located at the end of this
report.
Equity Research
North America September 23, 2009
Downgrading from Attractive to In-Line:
Running out of Steam
Abstract:We are downgrading our industry view on the life insurers
from Attractive to In-line. It has been a wild ride for the life insurers in
2009, and the substantial appreciation we have seen in the group in
recent months leads us to the conclusion that further upside is
beginning to look more limited. To be sure — we continue to expect
strong fundamental improvement, especially in the third quarter where
we see solid growth in reported book values and stronger returns on
equity sensitive products given the equity market rally. However, we
also remain somewhat wary over commercial real estate exposure, and
on a longer-term basis, we also believe the potential returns on equity
for the industry will be lower than that in the past as a result of higher
capital requirements and less risky investment portfolios, among other
things. With the group now trading at a premium to book value, we
expect the rally to run out of steam and for further appreciation to be
more in-line with the broader market.

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