摩根斯坦利：印度钢铁行业研究报告2009年7月

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Contents
Investment Case............................................................................................................................................................. 3
Summary & Conclusions.....................................................................................................................................................................3
Why We Prefer Tata and JSW to SAIL and JSPL................................................................................................................................................... 3
Tata Steel and JSW Steel; What’s Not in the Prices............................................................................................................................................... 4
Why We Are Upgrading the Indian Steel Sector ..................................................................................................................................................... 4
Why Are We Not Upgrading to Attractive ................................................................................................................................................................ 5
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Tata Steel (TISC.BO, Rs390.8, OW, PT Rs471) ................................................................... 7
Financial Summary: Tata Steel ..................................................................................................................................... 8
Tata: Breathing Space; Leg Up Needs Quick Action; Upgrade to OW.................................................................................................9
What’s Changed..................................................................................................................................................................................9
Key Debate .........................................................................................................................................................................................9
When will Corus operations show a meaningful rebound?...................................................................................................................9
Key Issues...........................................................................................................................................................................................9
Valuation ...........................................................................................................................................................................................10
Risk-Reward: JSW Steel (JSTL.BO, Rs616, OW, PT Rs716)..................................................................................... 12
Financial Summary – JSW Steel................................................................................................................................. 13
JSW Steel: Upgrading to OW as Earnings Trajectory Ticks Up............................................................................... 14
Investment Arguments ......................................................................................................................................................................14
Valuations .........................................................................................................................................................................................14
Risk-Reward Snapshot: SAIL (SAIL.BO, Rs151.1, EW, PT Rs128)........................................................................... 17
Financial Summary: Steel Authority of India ............................................................................................................. 18
SAIL: Outlook Improved But Most of This in Price; Upgrade to EW ....................................................................... 19
What’s Changed................................................................................................................................................................................19
Key Debates......................................................................................................................................................................................19
(1) How Indian steel prices will move by F4Q10 ...............................................................................................................................19
(2) To what extent can staff costs be trimmed?.................................................................................................................................19
(3) Can coking coal costs be cut? .....................................................................................................................................................20
(4) Is SAIL’s capacity expansion plan realistic? ................................................................................................................................20
Valuation ...........................................................................................................................................................................................20
Risk-Reward: JSPL (JNSP.BO, Rs2,491.3, EW, PT Rs2,282) .................................................................................... 22
Financial Summary – JSPL ......................................................................................................................................... 23
JSPL: Steel Looking Up; Power Stabilizing; Upgrade to EW ................................................................................... 24
Investment Arguments ......................................................................................................................................................................24
Valuations .........................................................................................................................................................................................24

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