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Electric Vehicles offer one of the fastest growth stories over the next
twenty years. We expect automotive sales of electric vehicles to rise to
over $400 billion by 2030 with batteries rising to over $100 billion and
incremental charging infrastructure spending of at least $170 billion through
2030. We believe that 1.1% of global vehicle sales will be electric by 2015,
driven by more than $15 billion in subsidies. That number could climb to
nearly 7.9% by 2030. Hybrid electric vehicles could reach 5.9% by 2030
from 0.6% today. Nearly every auto manufacturer has plans to develop
electric vehicles, with many models targeted to launch in 2010.
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Lithium ion battery market projected to grow to over $100 billion.
Given the massive growth opportunity and high cost of Lithium Ion batteries,
we expect the market size for large-scale lithium ion batteries to grow
substantially, potentially reaching $100 billion within 20 years. Volumes will
grow faster than the market size as prices decline with costs.
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We envision material impacts on oil and electricity demand by 2030 as
oil consumption falls by 4 million barrels per day and electricity demand
increases by 3.1%. Electric vehicles, beyond reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, provide valuable grid storage and enable more wind and solar
power generation, facilitating a disruptive shift in global energy flows.
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Battery material companies and component manufacturers are the best
way to invest, due to top-line growth and sustainable margins. Our top
long-term stock picks for materials and components are Kureha, Nidec,
Rohm, Furukawa Electric, Mitsubishi Chemical, Ube Industries, and ON
Semiconductor. While we have a bearish view on battery makers due to
potential commoditization, those that can protect their IP and defend
margins should benefit. Within this category we highlight BYD, Johnson
Controls, Panasonic, and Sanyo Electric.
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