瑞士信贷：美国银行业研究报告2009年9月

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Summary: Calendar QTD, avg. loans are tracking -2% q/q with pressure across
both commercial and consumer balances. This will likely result in revenue
pressures in Q3. Deposits are tracking +1.2% and capital ratios continue to
improve. While mortgage application activity remains strong, trends continue to
temper. We are also modifying target prices given the higher market levels over
the past couple months, steps taken to strengthen balance sheets, and improved
capital markets environment. JPM goes to $47 from $42, USB to $25 from $24,
PNC to $42 from $40, WFC to $26 from $24, C to $4 from $3.
■
Key Takeaways: It’s our view that the large cap banks will be more revenue
challenged over the near-term given the lack of balance sheet growth coupled
with tempered mortgage activity in 2H09. Those that have completed large bank
deals (WFC, PNC) with portions of acquired loan portfolios in run-off are likely to
see some top line pressure relative to consensus expectations. While loan
growth is negative, the decline in commercial loan balances (down 1.8% q/q) is
not as bad as we feared for the regional banks which may leave the more
commercial-exposed banks (CMA, KEY, RF, ZION) with better balance sheet
growth than we are currently modeling. That said, in aggregate, we expect weak
loan demand coupled with tightened underwriting to persist–leading to overall
lackluster balance sheet growth for the industry.
■
Differentiation: This report provides intra-quarter data-points–providing insight
to how banking fundamentals are evolving over the course of the quarter.

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