Investment summary 3
Cautious on oil reforms 3
Upstream better placed 5
Forecast changes 6
Stock ratings 7
Oil subsidy reform 9
New proposal 9
What has not changed yet 10
What could drive change 11
The challenges 11
Outlook for change 14
Impact on players 15
What is the potential upside? 15
Potential upside for upstream players 15
Potential upside for downstream players 17
Potential upside for GAIL 19
We prefer upstream on a relative basis 19
Forecasts and valuation 20
Forecast changes 20
Valuation 23
Risks for the sector 24
Company profiles 25
Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) 26
Financials & valuation: 28
GAIL 29
Financials & valuation: 31
Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) 32
Financials & valuation: 34
ONGC 35
Financials & valuation: 37
Disclosure appendix 39
Disclaimer 43
Contents