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Table of Contents
Investment view ............................................................................. 4
Factors that depressed earnings and stock prices since 2006 are fading ....................................... 4
No change in structural value of TV as a medium for video content ............................................... 4
Re-evaluation of scarcity value of TV as an advertising medium .................................................... 4
Timing of a rise in valuations ........................................................................................................ 4
Target price valuation multiples .................................................................................................... 5
Investment rating and target price ................................................................................................ 5
Fuji Media Holdings: Buy, ¥220,000 target price ........................................................................... 5
TBS Holdings: Hold, ¥1,700 target price ....................................................................................... 5
Nippon Television (NTV): Buy, ¥17,000 target price....................................................................... 6
TV Asahi: Buy, target price ¥200,000 ............................................................................................ 6
TV Tokyo: Sell, ¥1,800 target price ............................................................................................... 6
Earnings forecasts and valuation ................................................... 7
Earnings forecasts: scenario analysis............................................................................................ 7
Valuations / scenario analysis ....................................................................................................... 8
Lower than U.S. and European media companies. Time to factor in structural excellence............ 10
Our most bullish recommendations among ad-related stocks ... 11
In this changing environment, terrestrial broadcasters have secured relatively advantageous
positions................................................................................................................................... 11
Comparison with Internet media ................................................................................................ 11
Comparison with advertising agencies ....................................................................................... 11
Structural advantages of Japanese broadcasters over European,
U.S. commercial broadcasters ...................................................... 13
Terrestrial broadcasters dominate the TV market ........................................................................ 13
Market dominance reflected in ad market share, cost-control power .......................................... 13
Mechanisms of change in use of consumer media, and the ad
market ........................................................................................... 15
Trends in consumer media contact time..................................................................................... 15
Differences between TV and the Internet in terms of media quality, and the role of advertising ... 16
Mechanisms of change and decision-making in the ad market .................................................... 16
Coexistence of TV and Internet advertising, Opportunity for
revising views of TV advertising .................................................. 18
How advertisers choose media: coexistence of TV and Internet ................................................. 18
Opportunity for revising views on branding, and the importance of TV advertising ...................... 18
TV and Internet ad markets: present and future .......................... 20
TV advertising: Escaping the negative growth that has prevailed since 2006; aiming for recovery
and stability ............................................................................................................................... 20
Internet advertising: growth to remain gradual............................................................................ 21
Business models remain robust; risks are minor ......................... 22
Business models remain robust ............................................................................................... 22
Risks from 2011 onward (1): full shift to digital and termination of analog broadcasts .................. 22
Risks from 2011 onward (2): spread of digital recorders and skipping of TV commercials ............ 22
Risks from 2011 onward (3): spread of IPTV could also be a business opportunity ...................... 23
Major broadcasters likely to become more profitable as eight
years of excessive competition comes to an end ........................ 24
Earnings trends of major terrestrial broadcasters- figure 14......................................................... 24
Eight years of excessive competition comes to an end; cost control at an all-time high ............... 25
Polarization comes to the fore again ........................................................................................... 25
Earnings at some broadcasters appear to be at the bare minimum in FY3/10 .............................. 25
Key balance sheet factors: broadcasters own substantial financial assets and land...................... 25
(For reference) Medium-term outlook for US advertising market:
media trends ................................................................................. 27
Advertising market forecasts by Magna Global (part of the Interpublic Group in the US) .............. 27
Overall advertising market trends ............................................................................................... 27
Media trends ............................................................................................................................. 27
Fuji Media Holdings ...................................................................... 28
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