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雷达卡
Oil price forecasts usually rely on long term supply-demand analysis - a necessary but not sufficient approach that is often of little use in explaining short term volatility. In addition to fundamental analysis, SSA‟s 360º oil price forecast includes short term, non-fundamental aspects such as risk appetite, and assesses their impact on long term and short term oil prices.
Our WTI crude price forecasts are USD59/b for 2009e, 75/b for 2010e, USD87/b for 2011e and USD100/b for long-term. We are in-line with consensus estimates in 2010e and 2011e but more bullish on the long-term oil price.
Our global supply-demand model suggests that global demand will recover as early as 2H‟10. However, capacity is not expanding nearly fast enough and global spare capacity will fall to 3% by 2014e. We see net incremental demand of 690kbpd in 2011e, from net incremental supply of 3.1mmbpd in 2009e. Our analysis of crude affordability and production cost suggests that in the longer term oil prices will plateau at USD100/b.
The recent oil price surge was triggered by a combination of optimism on the global economic recovery and US$ weakness. However, our risk attitude check suggests that investors are unwilling to add more risks, given the >100% rebound from March 2009 lows. Oil looks to be fairly priced near term
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