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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月欧洲欧洲石油天然气行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
Oil & Gas
Five Reasons to Buy Energy
European Majors set to outperform markets in 2010:
We outline five reasons: 1) Positive earnings revisions
not only from oil but also from refining. 2) Margin
expansion – ‘sticky’ costs provide a tailwind through H1
at least. 3) Continued cost reduction and restructuring –
emphasis on squeezing out more costs and
repositioning portfolios. 4) Bad news in the price – low
growth, poor reserve replacement and weak refining are
all well flagged. 5) Valuation – we see upside of 13% in
absolute terms on the forward curve and Energy looks
c. 15% undervalued versus historical market PEs.
Bulls on crude: Our $85/bbl oil price estimate for 2010
is c. $10/bbl ahead of consensus. We believe
perceptions for long-term oil prices will move higher as
the market looks to OPEC to increase production
through the year to balance supply-demand
fundamentals, rather than today’s call for restraint.
Energy becomes a sector leader in wider markets:
Less buoyant equity markets and a stronger dollar
provide a strong backdrop against which to buy Energy.
Our strategists highlight that Energy is less well owned
than 12 months ago and historical performance in a
steepening yield curve and inflationary environment is
usually positive.
We would buy BG, Repsol and Total; downgrading
RD Shell and ENI to UW: With valuation multiple
premium/discounts converging – relative performance is
likely to be determined more by stock-specific catalysts
and portfolio bias. Our top picks are among the mid-caps
with BG and Repsol, while Statoil should perform well
again if our bullish call on crude plays out. Among the
large-caps, we prefer Total and BP. While we see
limited absolute downside at RD Shell and ENI, we think
there are better catalysts elsewhere in the group. We
raise our PTs across the group, primarily using DCF,
assuming the oil forward curve ($90/bbl+ in 2012+).
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